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Oil Prices React to Possible Saudi Supply Recovery and Risks in Hormuz
Oil prices fell for the third consecutive session on Friday, September 18, pressured by expectations that Saudi Arabia could restore part of its East-West pipeline capacity in the coming days. Brent for November settled at $103.87 per barrel, while the WTI contract for the same month declined to $96.08.
The information was published by the agency Eixos on September 18, 2026. During the session, investors monitored repairs to Saudi infrastructure, the suspension of shipments destined for Europe, and new incidents involving vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent Loses 0.91% and November WTI Falls 1.18%
Traded on the Intercontinental Exchange in London, Brent for November lost $0.95, equivalent to 0.91%, closing the day at $103.87 per barrel. The contract accumulated a weekly drop of 0.71%, oscillating between fears of new disruptions in the Middle East and signs of recovery in Saudi supply.
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In the United States, WTI for November fell $1.15, or 1.18%, closing at $96.08 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The October contract dropped $1.61, a decrease of 1.58%, to $100.30. However, for the week, October rose 0.25%, while November advanced 0.15%.
Saudi Pipeline Recovery Eases Supply Pressure
The decline was reinforced by expectations that Saudi Arabia would restore approximately half of its East-West pipeline capacity in the next few days. The system was damaged in an attack during the week, affecting transportation between the eastern production areas and the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
The pipeline serves as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, allowing some Saudi oil to reach the market via a different route. The prospect of partial recovery eased fears of a prolonged disruption. However, the Saudi government had not yet provided an official timeline for complete normalization of operations.
Saudi Aramco Suspends Deliveries to European Refineries
Despite the recovery expectations, Saudi Aramco informed at least two refineries in Europe that it would not be making the scheduled crude oil deliveries for the coming month. This was reported by Bloomberg and demonstrated that the damages to the pipeline were already causing repercussions for the company’s regular customers.
European buyers began seeking shipments from other regions. The Polish refiner Orlen sought North Sea oil to replace part of the Saudi supply. Aramco also began arranging shipments through Gulf terminals and transfers between ships near the port of Sohar in Oman.
Strait of Hormuz Remains a Risk for Shipments
The Strait of Hormuz remained at the center of concerns after Iran claimed to have hit the tanker Trend, flagged in Togo. According to the Iranian government, the vessel attempted to illegally cross the region. Explosions were also reported in the maritime passage during the afternoon, according to Al Hadath news channel.
The route has a direct impact on global supply. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that approximately 20 million barrels of oil and derivatives passed daily through the strait in 2024. The International Energy Agency estimates that about 25% of the world’s maritime oil trade used the passage in 2025.
Alternative routes do not replace all the flow from Hormuz
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are among the few Gulf producers with pipelines capable of diverting some shipments from Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, these routes offer between 3.5 million and 5.5 million barrels per day of available capacity, which is less than the volume typically transported through the strait.
The importance of the East-West pipeline has increased since the escalation of the regional conflict. Saudi exports through the port of Yanbu rose from about 2 million barrels per day to over 5 million in early June 2026. The attack targeted a facility specifically used to reduce dependence on the more exposed maritime route.
Attacks from Iran and the Houthis keep the market unstable
Risks have grown due to actions attributed to Iran and the Houthis, a Yemeni group aligned with Tehran. Attacks on pipelines, ports, and ships can affect deliveries even when fields continue to produce. For buyers, the availability of oil does not guarantee supply when shipments cannot reach refineries.
Dynamix Corporation assessed that the crisis raised the prospect of Saudi Arabia being partially out of the market for the first time since 1973. Investors were also anticipating possible diplomatic negotiations during the United Nations General Assembly, where U.S. President Donald Trump was scheduled to meet with Gulf leaders.
Rising diesel prices show the crisis’s effects on consumers
Supply issues were already evident at stations in the United States. According to the American Automobile Association, diesel prices reached US$ 6.45 per gallon, while gasoline hit US$ 4.47. A year earlier, gasoline cost US$ 3.20 per gallon.
A drop in oil prices during a session does not lead to an immediate reduction in fuel prices. Final prices also depend on refining costs, transportation, inventory levels, and import contracts. European refiners’ demand for alternative shipments may intensify competition for North Sea oil and other suppliers.
Japan ensures supply until November
Japanese refineries have secured enough crude oil supply until November, according to the Japan Petroleum Association. The country relies on imports to fuel its market and is closely monitoring conflicts in the Gulf due to Middle Eastern producers’ involvement in its purchases.
The confirmation of shipments reduces the risk of immediate shortages but does not prevent further price increases. Asian refineries are also competing for volumes shipped from Saudi terminals in the Gulf, while European clients are seeking suppliers capable of replacing suspended deliveries.
Upcoming prices will depend on repairs and route security
The recovery of the East-West pipeline will guide the next sessions. The market will watch how much capacity will be restored, when the port of Yanbu will return to normal operations, and whether Saudi Aramco will resume canceled deliveries to European clients.
The movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to influence Brent and WTI. In this session, the potential resumption of Saudi supply weighed more than the latest episodes of tension, but another attack could change the course of prices once again.
