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A simulation about the remote future of Earth rekindled the debate about climate, tectonics, and the limits of life on the planet, by projecting extreme changes that could drastically reduce the habitable areas for mammals.
A study published in the journal Nature Geoscience and conducted by researchers from the University of Bristol projected an extreme scenario for Earth in about 250 million years.
According to the authors, the formation of a new supercontinent, called Pangea Ultima, combined with the natural increase in solar radiation and higher levels of carbon dioxide, could sharply reduce the habitable areas for terrestrial mammals.
The research does not address the disappearance of the planet, but rather climatic conditions that, according to the models used, could jeopardize the survival of humans and other species in this group.
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What the study says about Pangea Ultima
The projection is based on long-term geological and climatic processes.
According to the article, the continents are expected to come together again into a single block, repeating a cycle already recorded in Earth’s history.
In this configuration, the largest continental mass would be concentrated in warmer regions, with less moderating influence from the oceans and a greater tendency toward thermal extremes in the interior of the continent.
At the same time, the tectonic activity associated with this rearrangement could raise the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere.
To reach this result, the researchers used climate models capable of simulating temperature, humidity, winds, and rainfall on the planet of the future.
The work also incorporated projections about the movement of tectonic plates and the carbon cycle over millions of years.
Based on this set of data, the authors estimated that the combination of a brighter Sun, higher concentration of greenhouse gases, and the formation of the supercontinent would create a considerably more hostile environment for terrestrial mammals.
According to the study, in approximately 250 million years, the Sun is expected to emit about 2.5% more energy than today.
Isolated, this increase would not remove Earth from the habitable zone of the Solar System.
Still, the authors state that when this factor is combined with the rise of CO₂ and the configuration of a single supercontinent, the result could lead the climate to levels incompatible with the survival of a large portion of mammals in extensive areas of the planet.
Extreme temperatures and habitability on Earth
This is a central point of the research.
The article does not claim that Earth will cease to exist nor does it assert that all forms of life will disappear at once.
What the work indicates is a significant decline in habitability for mammals, with heat and humidity above the physiological limits tolerable for prolonged periods.
In this scenario, the problem would not only be the rise in temperature but also the difficulty of dissipating heat by the organism under extreme atmospheric conditions.
The temperature range that gained prominence in the University of Bristol’s disclosure goes from 40 °C to 70 °C in different areas of the future supercontinent.
This range appears as a description of projected extremes for relevant parts of the Earth’s surface, and not as a uniform temperature across the planet.
In coverage of the study, the journal Nature reported that up to 92% of Earth’s surface could become uninhabitable for mammals, leaving only a fraction of the area with conditions suitable for this group.
In the authors’ view, the focus of the work is on climatic habitability in a very distant geological future.
The study addresses the possibility of an environment largely unsuitable for terrestrial mammals, a category that includes humans.
How continents and atmosphere influence life on the planet
The research also draws attention to another aspect.
According to the authors, a planet’s position relative to its star is not the only factor that defines whether it can support complex life.
The distribution of continental masses, atmospheric circulation, humidity, and carbon dioxide levels also influence this equation.
For this reason, the study has implications not only for Earth’s future but also for analyses of exoplanet habitability.
Today, the distribution of continents at different latitudes helps maintain a variety of climates, including temperate regions that favor the survival of various species.
In the projected scenario for Pangea Ultima, this diversity would decrease.
Moreover, areas located in the interior of the supercontinent would tend to record even greater extremes due to being further from the influence of the oceans.
According to the University of Bristol, this combination would favor the expansion of arid and very hot regions.
Another important data point from the study concerns future CO₂ levels.
The values estimated by the researchers, between 410 and 816 ppm in the analyzed scenarios, are linked to long-term natural processes associated with tectonics and volcanism.
This means that the article does not present a direct projection of the current climate crisis.
Still, the authors themselves highlight that the warming caused by human activity already represents a concrete problem and that current emissions need to be addressed.
What the scenario of the remote future indicates about the present
The difference between these two time scales helps to contextualize the debate.
On one side, there is climate change caused by human emissions, with observable effects over decades and centuries.
On the other side, there is a projection about tectonic, astronomical, and climatic processes that would unfold over hundreds of millions of years.
Although they are distinct phenomena, both involve the physical limits of the planet’s habitability.
In the case of the Sun, the accepted estimate by scientific agencies is that it is approximately halfway through its useful life, which is around 9 to 10 billion years.
NASA reports that the star is expected to continue shining for about 5 billion years before entering another phase of stellar evolution.
This data helps explain why the University of Bristol’s research points to a habitability problem much earlier than the final stage of the Sun.
The relevance of the study, therefore, lies less in a prediction about immediate disappearance and more in the description of a climatic limit for the life of mammals in a remote future.
By modeling the interaction between tectonics, atmosphere, and solar luminosity, the researchers describe a planet that could continue to exist, but with a much smaller portion of areas capable of sustaining organisms with physiological requirements similar to those of current mammals.
At present, the main distinction made by the authors is that the ongoing global warming does not depend on this 250 million year scenario to represent a risk.
The contemporary climate crisis already affects ecosystems, infrastructure, and public health, while the Pangea Ultima hypothesis operates on another time scale and with different mechanisms.
Still, the study is frequently cited because it shows that Earth’s habitability is not fixed and depends on a combination of geological, atmospheric, and astronomical factors.
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