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With the seasonally adjusted volume index hitting successive records, first in November 2025 and then already in 2026, retail trade confirmed nine consecutive years of growth in the accumulated total, in an advance distributed among sectors and influenced by the depreciation of the dollar against the real
Brazilian trade closed 2025 in the black for the ninth consecutive year, a fact that shows the resilience of consumption even with high interest rates. According to IBGE, in a February 2026 release, retail sales closed 2025 with an increase of 1.6%, marking the ninth consecutive year of gains. It’s almost a decade without retail declining in the year’s accumulated total.
And this performance led the monthly index to a new record. According to Agência Brasil, the result of 2025 led the series of the seasonally adjusted volume index to new record levels, reaching the maximum level in November 2025. It is important to separate the two data: the 1.6% increase is the year’s accumulated total, while the record level is of the volume index measured month by month.
What drove retail sales in Brazil
The growth was distributed among various sectors. According to IBGE, the advance of 2025 was driven by pharmaceuticals, furniture and appliances, and office, computer, and communication equipment, the latter strongly influenced by the depreciation of the dollar against the real. It wasn’t a single segment that carried retail.
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Selling 348.7 billion dollars to the world, Brazil’s exports reached the highest mark in history in 2025, even with the American tariff hike, and ended the year with a surplus of 68 billion dollars.
And the data on computing has an exchange rate explanation. According to IBGE, the computing and communication segment was strongly influenced by the strong depreciation of the dollar against the real in 2025. With the cheaper dollar, imported products like cell phones and computers became more accessible and boosted retail sales.
This exchange rate detail shows how sensitive retail is to the economy. When the real appreciates, imported electronic products drop in price on the shelf, which boosts sales in this segment and helps drive the overall trade result, even in a year of high interest rates that usually curb credit consumption.
How retail sales compare
The result of 2025 was positive, but lower than the previous year. According to IBGE, the 1.6% increase in 2025 was below the 4.1% of 2024, at the same level as the end of 2023, which was 1.7%. Retail grew less, but continued to grow.
And the beginning of 2026 renewed this monthly record. According to Agência Brasil, from February to March 2026, retail sales grew by 0.8%, and the volume index reached a new maximum level in the historical series that began in January 2000, surpassing the peak recorded in November 2025. Retail entered the following year breaking its own monthly volume record.
This comparison between the years shows an important pattern. Even slowing down compared to 2024, commerce did not decline, which confirms nine consecutive years of growth and indicates that Brazilian family consumption remained strong, supported by employment and income over nearly a decade.
Why retail grows in Brazil despite interest rates
The engine of consumption is employment. With a heated labor market and a positive balance of formal jobs, more people with income means more people buying, which sustains retail even when high interest rates make credit more expensive and slow down installment purchases.
Add to this the favorable exchange rate for consumers in 2025. The appreciation of the real lowered the price of imported products, which boosted the sale of electronics and IT precisely in a year when credit was more expensive, helping to sustain commerce results.
The numbers confirm the sector’s resilience. According to IBGE, retail sales grew by 1.6% in 2025, marking the ninth consecutive annual increase, in the ninth consecutive year of growth. It is a consumption that has been growing for almost a decade.
How much retail commerce moves in Brazil
The size of the sector is evident in the sequence of monthly records. According to Agência Brasil, the seasonally adjusted retail volume index reached its maximum level in November 2025. This index measures the volume sold month by month and should not be confused with the annual increase of 1.6%, which is the accumulated total for the closed year.
And the turn to 2026 surpassed this peak. According to Agência Brasil, from February to March 2026, retail sales grew by 0.8%, and the volume index reached a new maximum level in the series that began in January 2000, above the record of November 2025. It is one monthly record succeeding another, not a contradiction.
This sequence of historical highs is a portrait of firm consumption. Even with high interest rates making credit more expensive, Brazilians continued to buy over nearly a decade, making retail commerce one of the most consistent indicators that income and employment remained strong.
What retail growth means for the economy
Commerce is one of the largest employers in the country and a direct indicator of the Brazilian’s wallet. When retail sales grow, it signals that families have the income and confidence to consume, which drives the industry, transportation, and employment in a chain that reaches almost the entire economy.
In the end, the numbers for 2025 show a sector in consistent growth. With an increase of 1.6% accumulated, the ninth consecutive annual increase, the monthly volume index at a record level, and progress distributed among pharmacy, furniture, and IT, retail sales in Brazil confirmed their strength even with high interest rates. As long as there is employment and income, Brazilians consume. Tell us in the comments: did you spend more or less on commerce in 2025?
