Projections from Hedgepoint Global Markets and USDA indicate that Argentina may surpass Brazil in corn exports in 2025/26, while the Brazilian market faces external challenges and increased domestic demand for the cereal.
Brazil may cease to occupy the position of the second-largest corn exporter in the world in the 2025/26 season. According to a projection presented on Tuesday by Hedgepoint Global Markets during an online conference, Argentina is expected to ship 45 million tons, while Brazil is expected to export 43 million tons.
Moreover, the estimates are aligned with projections released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Meanwhile, the United States is expected to remain the global leader in corn exports.
Argentina gains competitiveness and may increase its share in the international market
According to Hedgepoint Global Markets, the recovery of Argentine production has made the country more competitive in international trade. Thus, the expectation is that Argentines will increase their share in the global market during the 2025/26 cycle.
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According to Luiz Fernando Roque, a consultant specialist, Argentina may capture part of the share currently held by Brazil.
“Argentina may gain market share, especially over Brazil, in 2025/26, due to more competitive prices.”
Additionally, the specialist highlighted that competition from the United States is also expected to influence Brazil’s performance in exports.
At the same time, another relevant factor involves Iran, a traditional buyer of Brazilian corn.
According to Hedgepoint, the country did not make purchases in June, a scenario associated with the conflict in the region. Consequently, Brazilian exports may be affected during the season.
In 2025, Iran received approximately 9 million tons of Brazilian corn, becoming the main destination for the product.
However, in the first part of the year, shipments to the country reached 1.5 million tons, below the 2.3 million tons recorded in the same period of 2025, according to the consultancy’s survey.
Additionally, it is worth remembering that Brazilian exports traditionally intensify in the second half of the year.
History shows when Brazil lagged behind Argentina in exports
If the projection is confirmed, 2025/26 will mark Argentina’s return to the second world position in corn exports.
Previously, this occurred in the 2020/21 season, when, according to historical data from the USDA, Brazil exported 20.85 million tons, while Argentina shipped 40.9 million tons.
Even so, the estimate for 43 million tons represents growth compared to the previous cycle, when Brazil exported 41.1 million tons, according to Hedgepoint’s calculations.
Ethanol gains strength and increases domestic corn consumption in Brazil
On the other hand, Hedgepoint assesses that this possible loss of position should be conjunctural. This is because the large Argentine crop explains part of the expected advance.
At the same time, the Brazilian domestic market continues to absorb more corn, mainly for ethanol production, reducing part of the volume available for export.
According to the consultancy, consumption destined for biofuel should reach 28.5 million tons, an increase of 5.5 million tons compared to 2025.
Meanwhile, consumption aimed at animal feed should rise to 61.2 million tons, an estimated increase of 200 thousand tons.
Additionally, Luiz Fernando Roque highlighted the recent decision by the Brazilian government to temporarily increase the blend of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline from 30% to 32%.
According to him, the adoption of the so-called E32 could add about 1.5 million tons to the corn consumption destined for ethanol production.
Brazilian production remains high, but international scenario changes
Finally, Hedgepoint Global Markets estimates that the Brazilian crop will reach 140.3 million tons in 2025/26, a number very close to the 140.5 million tons recorded in the previous cycle.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects a production of 139 million tons for the 2026/27 season.
Thus, although national production remains high, the growth of domestic consumption, Argentina’s competitiveness, competition from the United States, and the reduction of purchases by Iran may temporarily alter Brazil’s position in the global corn export ranking.
