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Although the Selic rate is frequently the focus of discussions about interest, the real current obstacle is the growing legal and political uncertainty, which has led financial institutions to drastically tighten approval rules and limit credit granting only to very low-risk profiles, harming consumption and economic growth.
Generally, Brazilians leave financing their cars to the end of the year. However, with interest rates soaring, hardly anyone is doing this in 2025.
When discussing the rising cost of money in Brazil, the spotlight often turns almost entirely to the Selic rate, defined by the Central Bank. However, a silent and impactful movement has been shaping the recent banking reality: the explosion of financial, political, and legal risk.
For financial institutions, the basic interest rate is just the starting point. The final value that reaches the consumer carries a “risk premium” – a safety margin calculated based on the likelihood of default and the difficulty of recovering the borrowed capital.
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The institute that trained the greatest aerospace engineers in Brazil has just opened its first campus outside São Paulo after 75 years: ITA Ceará will have R$ 445 million, new courses in energy and systems, and classes are expected to start in 2027.
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Luciano Hang, owner of Havan, goes to Juiz de Fora after the tragedy in February, brings R$ 1 million, hands out R$ 2,000 cards, and donates up to R$ 15,000 to victims in the region.
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Petrobras sends a message to Brazilian truck drivers after fuel collapse and reveals plan to have 100% domestic diesel.
Caution As A Rule
With a scenario marked by economic instability and a lack of clarity in fiscal policy directions, banks have pulled the handbrake. The reasoning is pragmatic: in an environment where the rules of the game can change or where the recovery of guarantees is hindered by legal obstacles, lending money becomes a risky bet.
This perception of insecurity forces financial institutions to be more selective. It is not just about charging more to offset losses, but about denying access to avoid exposure to risk.
The Credit Pipeline Narrows
The practical result of this movement is a strict control over the granting of new credit limits. Credit, which previously flowed relatively easily to the middle class and small business owners, now undergoes severe screening.
Today, there is a kind of “elitization” of loans: money is available, but only for a small number of people and companies with impeccable histories and solid guarantees. For the rest of the market, the reality is closed doors or prohibitive rates that make consumption and investment unfeasible.
As long as legal risks and political volatility are not addressed, the tendency is for the credit faucet to remain closed, regardless of future movements of the Selic.
Que matéria mequetrefe, de estagiário de segunda série… basta dar um google… “Financiamento de veículos bate recordeem 2025…” Teremos notícias como:
Financiamento de veículos em 2025 é o maior em 18 anos…