Portuguese 
English 
Spanish 
2 min of reading 
1 comment 
A “Perfect Storm” of Climate Crisis, Brazilian Production Break, and New Trade Barriers in the US Creates a Scenario of Uncertainty and Volatility for the Grain Market.
The global coffee market is facing a period of sharp price increases, and your daily coffee might get more expensive. The combination of a tariff spike in Brazil and other producing countries, climate change, and a Brazilian crop smaller than expected are the main reasons. The warning was issued by Vanúsia Nogueira, executive director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO).
Combined Factors Pressure the Global Coffee Market
Vanúsia Nogueira highlighted that the market is dealing with volatility and uncertainty. This occurs at a critical moment when global coffee consumption is rising while global stocks are decreasing. According to her, the situation is a result of multiple factors: the crop break in Brazil, extreme weather events, and new import tariffs.
The Impact of the “Tariff Spike” on the Coffee Sector
Experts point out that the imposition of tariffs by the United States creates significant uncertainty. Former President Donald Trump imposed rates that range from 10% to 50%. These measures directly affect the coffee exports from producing countries to the crucial North American market, placing the product at a “clear competitive disadvantage.”
-
Inflation in March reaches 0.88% according to IBGE and pressures the Brazilian economy, impacting family budgets and requiring more strategic decisions to maintain financial control.
-
In Paraná, distributor Pacto connects 100% of the load in Coronel Vivida to batteries: a BES of 10 MW and 20 MWh costs just over R$ 30 million and lowers the local tariff now.
-
With a dependence of up to 80% on gas imported from the United States, Mexico is responding with a robust energy strategy, betting on shale gas, creating a scientific committee, and preparing to expand natural gas production to reduce vulnerability and strengthen its energy security in the coming years.
-
The United States proposes to Brazil a critical minerals agreement with a minimum price to combat Chinese dumping and priority for investment, but the Planalto is blocking the signing out of fear of upsetting China and due to electoral calculations in a year of competition.
Break in Brazilian Crop and Climate Uncertainty
Brazil, as the world’s largest producer and exporter of coffee, is a key player in this scenario. However, the current harvest has been smaller than expected. Climate issues have caused the beans to weigh less, directly impacting the volume available in the market. This situation exacerbates the global scarcity, caused by several years of production deficits.
Low Stocks and High Consumption: Who Pays the Bill?
The director of the ICO was straightforward in stating that despite the increase, consumption continues to grow. “The consumer will pay, the consumer wants coffee,” said Nogueira. The strong demand, in the face of reduced supply, inevitably results in higher prices on the shelves.
Future of Production in Brazil Is Uncertain, Says Expert
The recovery of Brazilian production is still a major unknown, adding more pressure to the market. It is difficult to predict a return to normality. “We don’t know when Brazil’s harvest will return to normal; we are facing very strong climate events every year,” the expert observed. This climate instability is currently the biggest challenge to stabilizing the supply and prices of coffee.
É muita mentira numa matéria só que vergonha. O café está aumentando por que a produção está nas mãos de poucos e o consumo aumentando no mundo o resto é conversa pra **** dormir.