Maintenance Operation at Petrobras Refinery May Result in One Hundred Covid-19 Deaths, Technical Note from UFMG and INPA Warns

Maintenance Process of the Presidente Getúlio Vargas Refinery (Repar) Draws Many Criticisms Due to the High Risk of COVID-19 Transmission

An estimate from the so-called: ”Technical Note COVID-19: Risk Assessment for Araucária, in the state of Paraná”, issued by researchers from UFMG and INPA, shows great concern regarding COVID-19 in the city of Araucária, a municipality that is part of the metropolitan area of Curitiba. The increase in these cases is directly related to the maintenance shutdown of the Petrobras Presidente Getúlio Vargas Refinery (Repar).

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The maintenance procedure began last Monday, the 12th. This will increase the flow of people at Petrobras’s refinery by two thousand. Many of these workers come from other regions of the country, raising significant concerns for local residents.

In a section of the technical note, Petrobras is criticized for increasing the flow of people at the worst point of the pandemic in the country. As a result, the municipality could experience one death per day until June, totaling over a hundred deaths: ”The maintenance shutdown conducted by Petrobras tends to promote greater viral circulation, which will result in an average of about one death per day until the end of July, with at least 35 deaths expected for the entire month of June”.

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How They Arrived at the Numbers

The researchers arrived at these numbers using the ”SEIR (Susceptible – Exposed – Infected – Recovered)” method. A similar study was conducted in Curitiba, which used forecasts to take measures against COVID-19 and prevent a third wave, which would be three to four times larger than the first and second waves.

”The SEIRS model reevaluation for Curitiba indicated that over 1500 lives were saved by the social isolation implemented in the municipality”, the report states. A similar study was done in Manaus, where researchers warned municipal authorities months before total collapse occurred; however, few actions were taken.

Petrobras Maintenance Shutdown at Repar Also Poses Risks to Neighboring Municipalities

The maintenance shutdown conducted by Petrobras at the refinery also poses a significant risk to neighboring municipalities. Curitiba, for example, has not taken drastic measures against social isolation and has full ICU beds. Furthermore, as the municipality will have people from all over the country, there is a risk of cross-transmission of various variants, such as: P.1 (Manaus); P.2 (Rio de Janeiro); B.1.1.28 (Federal District); B.1.1.7 (England); B.1.1.143; B.1.235; and B.1.1.94. Workers from Repar entered a sanitary strike last Monday, the 12th.

The study suggests that the procedure at Petrobras’s refinery be postponed until 70% of the municipality’s population is vaccinated. Currently, the influx of people from various locations across the country poses a huge risk to the population.