Maintenance operation at a Petrobras refinery could result in 19 deaths from covid-XNUMX, points out a technical note from UFMG and INPA

Maintenance process at the Presidente Getúlio Vargas Refinery (Repar), generates a lot of criticism due to the high risk of transmission of Covid-19

An estimate of the call: ”COVID-19 Technical Note: Risk assessment for Araucaria, in the state of Paraná”, issued by researchers from UFMG and INPA, shows a great concern with Covid-19 in the city of Araucaria, a municipality that is part of the metropolitan area of ​​Curitiba. The increase in these cases would be directly related to the cessation of manutenção from the refinery of Petrobras President Getúlio Vargas (Repar).

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The maintenance procedure began last Monday, the 12th. As a result, refinery maintenance should increase the flow of people at the Petrobras refinery by two thousand people. Most of these workers come from other regions of the country, generating much concern for the local residents.

In an excerpt from the technical note, Petrobras is criticized for increasing the flow of people at the worst time of the pandemic in the country. With this, the municipality could reach one death per day even in June, totaling more than one hundred deaths: ”The maintenance stop carried out by Petrobras tends to provide greater viral circulation, which will result in an average of about one death per day until the end of July, and for the entire month of June, at least 35 deaths can be expected.".

How did they arrive at the numbers

The researchers arrived at these numbers using the method ”SEIR (Susceptible – Exposed – Infected – Recovered)”. A similar study was done in Curitiba, which used forecasts to take measures against Covid-19 and avoid a third wave, which would be three to four times larger than the first and second.

"The SEIRS model of reassessment of Curitiba pointed out that more than 1500 lives were saved by the social isolation employed in the municipality”, points out the report. A similar study was done in Manaus, where researchers alerted city authorities months before the total collapse took place, but few attitudes they were taken.

Petrobras Maintenance Stoppage at Repar also poses a risk to neighboring municipalities

The maintenance shutdown carried out by Petrobras at the refinery must also bring a great risk to neighboring municipalities. Curitiba, for example, has not taken drastic measures against social isolation and has full ICU beds. In addition, as the municipality will have people from all over the country, which means that there is a risk of cross-transmission of the most diverse variants, such as: P.1 (Manaus); P.2 (Rio de Janeiro); B.1.1.28 (Federal District); B.1.1.7 (England); B.1.1.143; B.1.235 and B.1.1.94. Repar oil workers went on a health strike last Monday, the 12th.

The study suggests that the procedure at the Petrobras refinery be postponed until 70% of the city's population is vaccinated. Today, the arrival of people from different parts of the country is a huge risk for the population.