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Yuan Use Soars and Already Dominates 40% of Brazil–China Trade in 2025, Triggering Alarm in the US and Pressuring Dollar Hegemony.
The number went almost unnoticed in technical reports, but it became a symbol of a historic turning point: in 2025, about 40% of trade between Brazil and China will already be settled in yuan. In just one year, the Chinese currency transitioned from an alternative to becoming a key player in bilateral transactions, reducing dependence on the dollar in one of the world’s most strategic trade routes.
The leap occurs months after the Central Bank of Brazil established a currency swap of R$ 157 billion (US$ 27.7 billion) with the People’s Bank of China, creating conditions to expand settlements in local currencies. In practice, soybean, ore, oil, and meat exporters are being paid in yuan, while Brazilian importers settle for machinery, inputs, and technology directly in the Chinese currency — without needing to go through the dollar.
How We Got Here
The process did not start in 2025. For years, China has been working to internationalize the yuan as part of its strategy to become a full-fledged power, not just productive but also financial. Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America and a central supplier of commodities, became a natural target of this agenda.
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In 2023, the BRICS were already discussing ways to reduce the dollar’s weight in intra-block trade. In 2024, Beijing expanded currency swaps and encouraged banks to offer direct credit in yuan.
The turning point came in 2025: with the billion-dollar agreement between the central banks and the growing Chinese demand for Brazilian products, the real and the yuan began to underpin a large part of bilateral trade.
For the US, Brazil is a Key Player
While the yuan’s advancement brings immediate benefits to Brazilian exporters, in Washington, the move is seen as a sign of the erosion of dollar hegemony.
The American currency still dominates about 80% of global transactions, but each time a strategic partner adopts alternative currencies, the fear of a “domino effect” grows.
For the US, Brazil is a key player:
- It is the largest exporter of soy and beef in the world.
- It is a relevant supplier of oil, ore, and pulp.
- It is a regional leader and a central partner of China in Latin America.
By accepting yuan in billion-dollar contracts, Brazil not only diversifies its currency dependence but sets a precedent for other emerging countries to follow suit.
Direct Impact on Brazil
In the short term, the yuan’s advancement brings clear benefits:
- Cost Reduction: by eliminating dollar intermediaries, exporters and importers reduce fees and currency risks.
- Crisis Protection: the swap with China guarantees access to liquidity in yuan in scenarios of financial stress.
- Enhanced Competitiveness: more agile and less bureaucratic contracts strengthen sectors like agribusiness, mining, and energy.
Soybean producers, for example, celebrate the end of exclusive dollar dependence. A shipment of 50,000 tonnes can be settled directly in yuan, without the abrupt fluctuations of the American exchange rate. For industrial equipment importers, the effect is similar: more predictable costs and faster contracts.
The Risk of New Dependence
But the advance also brings strategic dilemmas. Economists warn that s switching from dollar dependence to yuan dependence does not mean true independence.
The Chinese currency is still not fully convertible, and its financial market remains under strong state control.
This means that, in crisis scenarios, access to yuan may depend on political decisions from Beijing, not just market dynamics. In other words: Brazil may be moving away from a historical dependence only to enter another, more complex and less transparent one.
The BRICS as a Stage for Dispute
The explosion of the yuan in Brazil–China trade is also connected to the BRICS agenda. In 2025, the expanded bloc — now including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran — began discussing mechanisms to standardize payments in local currencies.
Although the creation of a BRICS single currency is ruled out, the advancement of platforms like “BRICS Pay” and increasing bilateral swaps implement a network parallel to the West-dominated financial system.
For Beijing, every contract in yuan within the BRICS is a victory against the dollar. For Moscow, pressed by sanctions, the alternative is vital. For New Delhi and Pretoria, the issue is to maintain balance and avoid the bloc becoming merely a reflection of Chinese interests. Brazil, in this game, sees itself as a central player and target of cross pressures.
And the European Union?
While the US sounds the alarm, the European Union watches cautiously. Brussels fears that the transition to alternative currencies may further weaken its competitiveness. At the same time, it advances with regulations such as the EUDR (EU Deforestation Regulation), which pressures Brazilian soy and meat supply chains.
The European message is clear: if Brazil strengthens its financial ties with China, it will have to face harsher barriers when trying to sell to the European market.
The Future of the Dollar
The yuan is still far from dethroning the dollar as the global currency. Its share in international reserves is below 5%, and its global circulation is still limited. But experts point out that it is not necessary to replace the dollar to challenge its hegemony — it is enough to gradually reduce its centrality.
That is exactly what is happening now. If 40% of the Brazil–China trade already occurs in yuan, it represents tens of billions of dollars that have ceased to circulate in the American system. Multiply this effect by Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other partners, and the impact becomes systemic.
The advance of the yuan in Brazil–China relations is, at the same time, a victory and a risk. Victory because it expands options, reduces costs, and gives Brazil more prominence in financial geopolitics. Risk because it may plunge Brazil into an even greater dependence on China, in a context of increasingly fierce global competition.
É sempre bom haver mudanças no sistema financeiro Mundial. Esta estratégia do Brasil em ampliar o uso da moeda chinesa nas relações comerciais bilaterais com a China pode ser arriscada contudo é melhor que favorecer a economia norte Americana.
Não tem dependência o que tem é mudança e isso é ruim para o dólar mas o olho que tudo vê sabe que é melhor dividir aos poucos do que quebrar de vez como aconteceu em 1929 o fato é que a hegemonia vinda desde o petrodolares nos anos 70 está esvaziando aos poucos.
Na expectativa. Não podemos ser colônia. Usa sempre manipulou o mercado. ABCs.