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Electric vehicles have reached a tipping point in Europe and China, with exponential sales growth, a decline in combustion models, an increase in market options, and price parity forecast between 2025 and 2028.
Sales of electric vehicles in China and Europe have reached a threshold considered a tipping point, capable of driving a difficult-to-reverse shift away from gasoline and diesel-powered cars. This conclusion appears in research published in Nature Communications, following an analysis of global sales between 2016 and 2023.
The study identified exponential sales growth of electric vehicles in 32 countries. The global fleet of electric and hybrid cars doubled every 1.5 years during the analyzed period, while leading markets advanced at an even stronger pace.
In the European Union, sales doubled every 1.3 years; in China, every 1 year; and in the United States, every 1.7 years. Conversely, sales of traditional cars began a steady decline around 2019, with additional impact caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
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Traditional Market Loses Momentum
Even after the economic recovery in the post-pandemic period, sales of combustion cars continued to fall. Sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids remained strong, reinforcing signs of structural change in the automotive sector.
The research points to the rapid increase in the share of electric vehicles, the sharp decline in combustion cars, and the weakening resistance of the fossil fuel-powered vehicle market as central signs of this turning point. Another indicator was the greater variety of electric models, accompanied by a reduction in the variety of traditional cars.
Price parity also appears as a decisive element. Advanced modeling indicates that, on the current trajectory of public policies, electric vehicles are expected to reach prices equivalent to those of combustion cars in Europe and China between 2025 and 2028.
Price Parity Expected to Advance to Other Markets
After Europe and China, price parity is expected to reach the United States, Canada, and South Korea between 2026 and 2030. For the rest of the world, the projection indicates advancement between 2030 and 2035.
Researchers identified the critical signs of the tipping point by analyzing the volatility of conventional vehicle market shares before the pandemic. Fluctuations became more intense and, at the same time, slower, a pattern described in the study as a classic signature of the beginning of a turning point.
Professor Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter stated that market data shows, for the first time, early signs of opportunity before a positive tipping point. The adoption of electric vehicles and the decline of fossil fuel-powered cars are now gaining their own momentum in this scenario.
Public Policies Sustained the Advancement of Electric Vehicles
Although the adoption of electric vehicles in China and Europe has become self-sustaining, the pace is not yet sufficient for existing climate goals. Targets require the elimination of transport emissions by 2050 in Europe and by 2060 in China.
Jean-François Mercure, Director of Climate Policy at Exeter, links the technological shift to a set of policies adopted in the 2000s and 2010s. The combination of subsidies, public procurement, and electric vehicle sales mandates helped form critical mass, while carbon taxes played little or no significant role.
The assessment indicates that subsidies make electric vehicles more accessible, while public procurement and mandates increase the availability of models in the market. For researchers, maintaining or intensifying these policies in China and Europe can continue to reduce costs and facilitate the transition in regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
Impact Reaches Oil and Global Economy
The reduction in oil consumption can bring significant economic benefits to importing countries, including lower pollution, reduced associated diseases, and increased international purchasing power through the trade balance. These resources could be directed towards other development goals.
Mercure also links the rapid decline of internal combustion engines to broad effects on the global oil market. In the current technological trajectory, oil demand tends to peak before 2030 or shortly thereafter.
The advancement of electric vehicles can particularly benefit developing countries that import oil, by freeing up international purchasing power. At the same time, developing economies dependent on oil production may face fiscal or financial difficulties with the shift.
Click here to access the study.
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