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Despite The Absolute Increase In Exits, The Proportion Of Super-Rich People Leaving The Country Has Been Declining Since 2017, According To Previously Unreleased Research.
The discussion about a possible exodus of millionaires from Brazil gains momentum with the income tax reform. Consultancy projections indicate a growing exodus. However, unreleased official data from the Federal Revenue, obtained by BBC News Brasil, shows a more complex scenario and reveals that reality is different from what it seems.
Tax Reform And The Supposed Flight Of The Rich
The idea that millionaires are leaving Brazil has returned to public debate. The main reason is the progress of the income tax reform. The proposal aims to increase taxation on the wealthiest. In contrast, it seeks to exempt those who earn up to R$ 5,000.
This narrative has been reinforced by a report from the consultancy Henley & Partners. The company, which helps wealthy individuals obtain investment visas, estimated that 1,200 millionaires will leave the country this year. This would represent a 50% increase compared to 2024. The projection would position Brazil as a leader in the “millionaire exodus” in Latin America. However, the methodology of these reports is questioned by experts.
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Official Data Tells A Different Story From The Alarm
To verify the facts, BBC News Brasil requested data from the Federal Revenue through the Access to Information Law. The unprecedented survey is based on declarations of definitive departure from the country, a mandatory document for those moving permanently or for more than 12 months.
The numbers show that the departure of millionaires (people with an annual income above R$ 1 million) has resumed growth after the pandemic. In 2025, until August, 1,446 millionaires declared their departure. This is the second highest number in the historical series, which began in 2011, falling behind only 2017, with 1,461 exits.
The peak in 2017 occurred in a scenario of recession, a political crisis with the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, and the ongoing Lava Jato Operation.
The Absolute Number Is Deceptive: The Importance Of Proportional Analysis
Analyzing only the absolute numbers can lead to incorrect conclusions. Experts point out that the total number of millionaires in Brazil has grown significantly during this period, rising from 81,000 in 2011 to over 366,000 in 2023. This increase is due to inflation, GDP growth, and greater income concentration.
The more accurate way to assess the phenomenon is to analyze the proportion of exits in relation to the total number of millionaires. And this calculation, done exclusively for the report, shows a different reality: the proportion of millionaires leaving Brazil each year has been declining since 2017.
In practice, less than 1% of millionaires leave Brazil annually. The average for the period is 0.5% per year. For Manoel Pires from FGV Ibre, “it is difficult to say that there is a flight of millionaires due to the tax agenda.”
Why Millionaires Are Leaving Brazil
Consultancies like Henley & Partners point out that the departure is due to the political environment, economic changes, the search for new lifestyles, business opportunities, and security. Tax uncertainty would be an additional factor.
However, fiscal policy experts disagree that taxation is the main reason. Sergio Gobetti from Ipea questions where these millionaires would migrate to have a more favorable tax treatment than in Brazil, one of the few countries that do not tax profits and dividends.
According to him, the proposed reform would not be sufficient to justify a change of country. Even with the new 10% tax on dividends, the taxation of profits in Brazil (40.6%) would still remain below the average of 42.8% in OECD countries.
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