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Would Brazil Be Better Off Under Bolsonaro? Bruno Perini and Charles Mendlowicz Debate the Economy, Public Debt, and Government Fiscal Decisions. Spending Management, the Impact of the Financial Market, and Political Strategy Are Analyzed in Depth. Discover How Economic Choices Shape the Country’s Future!
In times of economic instability and heated debates about the country’s direction, a provocative question arises: Would Brazil be in a better situation if Jair Bolsonaro were still in the presidency?
This reflection gains traction amid analyses of public spending, economic reforms, and market confidence.
Experts disagree on how the economic scenario could be different under a right-wing administration. But would this change in leadership bring stability or deepen challenges?
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Fiscal Management and Its Impact on Public Spending
Bruno Perini, from the Você Mais Rico channel, highlights during his participation in the PrimoCast channel that the management of the economy does not depend solely on the president, but on how the country is administered.
He recalls that the spending cap, created during Michel Temer’s administration, was supposed to last until 2026 but was replaced by the fiscal framework in the current management.
“The spending cap never fully worked in Brazil, except during Temer’s government. Even with its flaws, it was better than the current structure”, stated Perini.
He criticizes the constant changes to the new fiscal framework, pointing out that flexibility in the rules has allowed for excessive spending.
According to Perini, even with Paulo Guedes at the forefront of the economy in Bolsonaro’s government, the spending cap was not respected.
However, he notes that if the administration had been more austere, market confidence could have been greater, positively impacting interest rates and, consequently, the nominal deficit.
“If there had been more confidence in the government, interest rates could be lower, reducing the deficit”, he emphasized.
The Difficulty in Cutting Public Spending
Charles Mendlowicz, known as the Honest Economist, points out that reducing expenses in Brazil is a significant challenge, regardless of political ideology.
He recalls international examples, such as the Greek crisis, to illustrate how times of crisis facilitate drastic cuts.
“After a crisis, it becomes easier to implement reforms, as happened with Temer, who approved labor and pension reforms after the economic crisis of Dilma’s government”, explained Mendlowicz.
For him, left-wing governments, by their nature, tend to avoid spending cuts, which complicates fiscal adjustments.
Mendlowicz also criticizes the lack of a professionalized public management, where strategic positions should be held by qualified specialists.
“In the private sector, you hire the best to manage finances. Why not do the same in government?”, he questioned.
Popularity and Reelection Influence Economic Decisions
Bruno Perini emphasizes that politicians’ decisions are guided by the pursuit of popularity and reelection.
He argues that unpopular economic measures are rarely adopted, as rulers prefer to please the electorate with increased spending. “It’s easier to be reelected by spending more, not less.
The logic is to print money to please as many people as possible”, Perini remarked.
This logic, according to him, explains why fiscal adjustment measures are pushed to the next government.
He observes that increasing social benefits, such as raising the minimum wage and expanding Bolsa Família, can strengthen the current government’s support base.
“The government gains support with these benefits, but this does not help in controlling public accounts”, he stated.
The Structural Challenges of the Brazilian Economy
Charles Mendlowicz reinforces that Brazil’s political structure makes it difficult to implement consistent economic policies.
For him, the confidence of the ruler in those appointed to strategic positions often outweighs technical competence.
“Rulers prefer to appoint trusted people, even if they are not the most qualified”, he criticized.
He also mentioned the difficulty of breaking away from traditional political practices, such as the use of electoral funds.
Mendlowicz cited the Novo Party as an example of a party that renounced electoral funding and therefore struggled to maintain political relevance.
“Novo reduced its size by not using electoral funds, competing at a disadvantage with parties that utilize these resources”, he explained.
The Burden of Public Debt and High Interest Rates
Perini raised attention to the impact of high interest rates on public debt.
He highlighted that Brazil’s primary deficit, in relation to GDP, is not so significant, but high interest rates significantly increase the negative financial outcome.
“High interest rates weigh more than the primary deficit. If there were more confidence in the government, interest rates would be lower”, he reinforced.
He warned that the growth of public debt, which could reach 100% of GDP, brings serious consequences.
To balance the accounts, the government may be forced to issue more currency, which contributes to the devaluation of the real.
“With more money circulating and the same amount of goods, purchasing power decreases”, warned Perini.
Would Brazil Be Better Off?
The answer to the initial question is not simple.
Bruno Perini and Charles Mendlowicz point out that, regardless of who was in power, economic challenges require unpopular measures and fiscal discipline.
The Bolsonaro administration faced the pandemic, while the current government deals with its own difficulties.
The hypothetical scenario of a continuation of Bolsonaro’s government raises questions about the adoption of stricter policies or the maintenance of practices that had already been criticized.
And you, do you believe that Brazil would be in a better economic situation under Jair Bolsonaro’s leadership? Share your opinion in the comments and join the debate!
tenho certeza que Bolsonaro ele é o melhor presidente pro Brasil passou da hora deste 9 dedos governar este país PT NUNCA MAIS O BRASIL PRECISA DE UM PRESIDENTE QUE GOVERNE COM ÉTICA PARA MELHORAS DO DESENVOLVIMENTOS
Com certeza comais austeridade Paulo Guedes, traria mais investimentos de fora para o País
Só sei que o Brasil esta ladeira abaixo.
É um tremendo Desgoverno.
Pobre dos Brasileiros sendo cada dia mais idiotizados.