English 
Spanish 
5 min read
7 comments
Would Brazil be better off under Bolsonaro? Bruno Perini and Charles Mendlowicz discuss the economy, public debt and the government's fiscal decisions. Spending management, the impact of the financial market and political strategy are analyzed in depth. Find out how economic choices shape the country's future!
In times of economic instability and heated debates about the country's direction, a provocative question arises: would Brazil be in a better situation if Jair Bolsonaro still occupy the presidency?
This reflection gains strength amid analyses on public spending, economic reforms and market confidence.
Experts differ on how the economic landscape could be different under a right-wing administration. But would such a change in leadership bring stability or deepen challenges?
- New traffic law has a fine of R$2.934,70 with a 12-month suspension of the driver's license and will become a nightmare for Brazilian drivers in 2025
- Embraer closes one of the largest agreements in its history to generate 5 jobs and produce C-390 Millennium aircraft
- Country singer surprises the agribusiness sector after selling his farm: around R$350 million
- Government says they are assets of the Union and authorizes expropriations in the area of a new mega railway that will transport 25 million tons of iron ore per year
Fiscal management and the impact on public spending
Bruno Perini, from the channel Você Mais Rico, highlights during his participation in PrimoCast channel that the management of the economy does not depend only on the president, but on the way the country is managed.
He recalls that the spending cap, created during Michel Temer's government, was supposed to be in effect until 2026, but was replaced by the fiscal framework in the current administration.
“The spending cap has never worked fully in Brazil, except under the Temer government. Even though it was breached, it was better than the current structure,” said Perini.
He criticizes the constant changes in the new fiscal framework, pointing out that the flexibility in the rules has allowed excessive spending.
According to Perini, even with Paulo Guedes at the head of the economy in the Bolsonaro government, the spending cap was not respected.
However, he considers that, if the administration had been more austere, market confidence could have been greater, positively impacting interest rates and, consequently, the nominal deficit.
“If there was more confidence in the government, interest rates could be lower, reducing the deficit,” he highlighted.
The difficulty in cutting public spending
Charles Mendlowicz, known as the Sincere Economist, points out that reducing expenses in Brazil is a major challenge, regardless of political ideology.
He recalls international examples, such as the Greek crisis, to illustrate how moments of crisis facilitate drastic cuts.
“After a crisis, it becomes easier to implement reforms, as happened with Temer, who approved the labor and social security reforms after the economic crisis of the Dilma government,” explained Mendlowicz.
For him, left-wing governments, by their nature, tend to avoid spending cuts, which makes fiscal adjustments difficult.
Mendlowicz also criticizes the lack of professionalized public management, where strategic positions should be filled by qualified specialists.
“In the private sector, you hire the best to take care of the finances. Why not do the same in government?” he asked.
Popularity and re-election influence economic decisions
Bruno Perini highlights that politicians' decisions are guided by the search for popularity and re-election.
He argues that unpopular economic measures are rarely adopted because governments prefer to please voters with spending increases. “It’s easier to get reelected by spending more, not less.
The logic is to print money to please as many people as possible,” commented Perini.
This logic, according to him, explains why fiscal adjustment measures are left to the next government.
He notes that increasing social benefits, such as readjusting the minimum wage and expanding Bolsa Família, could strengthen the current government's support base.
“The government gains support with these benefits, but this does not help control public accounts,” he said.
The structural challenges of the Brazilian economy
Charles Mendlowicz reinforces that the Brazilian political structure makes it difficult to implement consistent economic policies.
For him, the government's trust in those appointed to strategic positions often overrides technical competence.
“Governors prefer to appoint people they trust, even if they are not the most qualified,” he criticized.
He also mentioned the difficulty of breaking with traditional political practices, such as the use of electoral funds.
Mendlowicz cited the New Party as an example of a party that gave up electoral funding and, therefore, had difficulty maintaining political relevance.
“Novo reduced its size by not using the electoral fund, competing at a disadvantage with parties that use these resources,” he explained.
The burden of public debt and high interest rates
Perini drew attention to the impact of high interest rates on public debt.
He highlighted that Brazil's primary deficit, in relation to GDP, is not that significant, but high interest rates significantly increase the negative financial result.
“High interest rates weigh more than the primary deficit. If there were more confidence in the government, interest rates would be lower,” he reinforced.
He warned that the growth of public debt, which could reach 100% of GDP, has serious consequences.
To balance the accounts, the government may be forced to issue more currency, which contributes to the devaluation of the real.
“With more money in circulation and the same quantity of goods, purchasing power decreases,” warned Perini.
Would Brazil be better off?
The answer to the initial question is not simple.
Bruno Perini and Charles Mendlowicz point out that, regardless of who was in power, economic challenges require unpopular measures and fiscal discipline.
The Bolsonaro administration faced the pandemic, while the current government deals with its own difficulties.
The hypothetical scenario of a continuation of the Bolsonaro government raises doubts about the adoption of stricter policies or the maintenance of practices that had already been criticized.
Do you think Brazil would be in a better economic situation under the leadership of Jair Bolsonaro? Leave your opinion in the comments and join the debate!
Lula and Bolsonaro are hostages of extremist ideologies and are far from legality and true patriotism and the good of the people. They cannot survive without fanatical populism... They are like this and will go down in history and Brazil will pay the price.
Our income tax is very high, the government should lower it even more.
I don't think so. We should be more concerned about interest rates. The government, together with Congress, should make a proposal to end it.