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Brazil Closes 2024 With Surplus of US$ 13.5B in the Arab League, While US Tariff Opens Space for New Markets
Arab countries are looking to increase their purchase of Brazilian products. This measure arises as an alternative to the tariff imposed by the United States. Since Wednesday, the 6th, a 50% surcharge on Brazilian products sold to the American market has come into effect.
A study from the Arab-Brazilian Chamber of Commerce, shared with Estadão/Broadcast, shows that this change opens space for Brazil to strengthen its partnership with the 22 countries of the Arab League.
The survey mapped the items most affected by the new tariffs, their import volumes, and the most promising destinations in the Arab world.
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Brazil stood still: while global GDP per capita soared 675% since 1980, the country grew only 428%, lost ground since 2015, and today could have 42% higher income, with an additional US$ 13.4 thousand per inhabitant.
Products With Immediate Potential
The diagnosis pointed out 13 products exported by Brazil to the United States in the last five years that can be redirected to the Arab market. For each of these, the Chamber indicated three countries with the highest absorption potential.
An example is green coffee. In 2024, Brazil exported US$ 513.83 million to Arab countries, compared to US$ 1.896 billion sent to Americans.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Algeria appear as the main alternative destinations. Only US$ 49.12 million of the US$ 400 million imported by Saudi Arabia came from Brazil, indicating room to expand Brazil’s share.
Beef is another highlight. In 2024, Arabs purchased US$ 1.211 billion in Brazilian beef protein.
The United States received US$ 885 million. Countries such as Egypt, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia may increase their acquisitions.
In Egypt, for example, only US$ 273.07 million of the US$ 927.12 million spent on beef was directed to Brazil.
Items Yet to Be Explored
The study also highlighted products that Arabs buy on a large scale but still do not have a significant presence from Brazil.
Construction machinery, such as bulldozers and front loaders, are on this list. There is room for growth.
Another case is semi-finished iron or steel products and coniferous wood. These are items exported to the United States but with low penetration in the Arab market. Therefore, they represent opportunities to explore.
Differences in Tariffs
The most important point lies in the tariffs. Green coffee arrives in Arab countries with a zero rate. The United States, on the other hand, now charges 50% on the Brazilian product.
For frozen beef, the tariff in Arab countries ranges from zero to 6%. Sugar faces a rate between zero and 20%.
Iron and steel pay between zero and 12%, compared to 50% in the United States. Refined oil, one of the flagship Brazilian exports to the American market, enters the Arab League at a 5% tariff.
Thus, the commercial conditions favor the redirection of Brazilian exports.
Mitigation of Impacts and Expansion
According to the Chamber, the goal is twofold: to mitigate the effects of the American surcharge and to strengthen trade ties with the Arabs.
The calculation took into account the 20 main products exported by Brazil to the United States, the applicable tariffs, and consumer destinations in the Arab League.
The Secretary-General of the Chamber, Mohamad Mourad, highlighted that Arab countries have population and economic growth above the world average, in addition to a young population.
He emphasized that Brazil is a strategic provider for the region’s food security.
Expectations and Perspectives
There is still no exact estimate of how much can be redirected, but Mourad projects partial absorption already this year.
He cites coffee and beef as examples of products that may have immediate demand, although not all will be absorbed.
For him, the productive sector and companies need to act proactively to seize this space.
Current Results and Next Steps
In 2024, Brazil exported US$ 23.68 billion to Arab countries, achieving a surplus of US$ 13.50 billion.
The United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia lead as the main buyers. The expectation is for stability, with slight growth this year.
Agribusiness dominates the Brazilian agenda, accounting for 76% of shipments. The main products are sugar, chicken, iron ore, corn, and beef.
Brazil is also the main supplier of soybeans, corn, peanuts, orange juice, cellulose, raw tobacco, pig iron, and tin residues.
Complementary Relations
Trade between Brazil and Arab countries presents strong complementarity. Brazil imports mainly oil and fertilizers, while exporting food and agricultural commodities.
For Mourad, the challenge is to strengthen the country’s image as a reliable, competitive, and quality supplier. He points out that shipping costs, although high, do not prevent Arab purchases.
Moreover, there is historical weight. Brazil and Arab countries have maintained trade relations for over a century. The Chamber aims to reinforce this link with the support of the Brazilian government.
Priority Countries
Some countries have been highlighted as strategic for expansion. Egypt is the main one, due to the trade agreement with Mercosur. Since 2010, when the treaty was signed, Brazilian exports to the country have nearly doubled.
Algeria, Libya, and Iraq also appear as promising targets. Algeria has over 40 million inhabitants and is a major oil exporter, but has high tariffs that require negotiation. Libya and Iraq, with greater recent stability, present liquidity for imports.
Action Plan
To seize the moment, the Chamber suggests a plan in three fronts: awareness, diversification, and facilitation.
Measures include campaigns for commercial promotion of products, support for Brazilian companies in meeting local requirements, such as halal certification, and advancement in trade and diplomatic agreements.
Practical actions were also suggested, such as facilitating business visas, organizing trade missions, and attracting Arab and Islamic investments.
Mercosur, in turn, is identified as a key player. Negotiations are underway with Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, and the Gulf Cooperation Council. The most advanced talks are with the United Arab Emirates.
Political and Economic Opportunity
In Mourad’s assessment, the current moment favors rapprochement. He believes that the Brazilian government understands the strategic relevance of the Arab world and sees the economic potential of the region.
For the Chamber, food security is the central link of the partnership. And Brazil appears as a reliable supplier in various sectors, especially in agribusiness.
The conclusion of the study is clear: the tariff escalation from the United States opens immediate space for Brazil to expand its presence in the Arab market.
The challenge is to act quickly, seize the window, and consolidate new trade relations that could yield billions in exports.
With information from Estadão.
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