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Early movement by major economies redefines the pace of the global climate agenda and places formal commitments at the center of international negotiations.
Brazil, India, Japan, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States already appear in the UN’s public registry with climate targets linked to the 2035 horizon, revealing which economies have decided to formalize commitments ahead of a significant portion of the international community.
Gathered in this segment, countries with distinct economic, energy, and demographic profiles broaden the political reach of these submissions, while reinforcing the strategic dimension of the competition for leadership in the contemporary global climate agenda.
UN Registry Becomes Thermometer for Climate Race
Within the system maintained by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the so-called Nationally Determined Contributions, known as NDCs, serve as a public basis where each country formalizes its climate objectives before the international community.
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From these documents, governments, researchers, and multilateral organizations can more precisely track which commitments have been made, when they were registered, and how each country has decided to make its position verifiable within the scope of the Paris Agreement.
Brazil Bets on Leadership with New NDC
In the Brazilian case, the submission of the Second Nationally Determined Contribution, made on November 13, 2024, sets targets for 2035 and reinforces the attempt to consolidate the country as a relevant actor in global climate negotiations.
According to the document, the proposal foresees reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by between 59% and 67% compared to 2005 levels, increasing the weight of the Brazilian discourse on topics such as decarbonization, forest protection, and climate finance.
In addition to the environmental factor, the holding of COP30 in Belém, scheduled for November 2025, adds an important political component, positioning the country at the center of multilateral discussions at a decisive moment for the climate agenda.
United Arab Emirates Anticipates Target and Signals Energy Strategy
Among the first to move, the United Arab Emirates submitted its third NDC on November 6, 2024, anticipating other major emitters and expanding its presence in the international debate on energy transition.
According to the registered commitment, the country plans to reduce emissions by 47% by 2035, compared to 2019, a move that draws attention as it comes from an economy strongly associated with oil production and export.
Even with this progress, challenges remain related to reconciling economic growth, dependence on fossil fuels, and climate targets, a common scenario for countries with strong involvement in the global energy market.
United States Registers Target Before Agreement Withdrawal
The United States formalized an NDC aimed at 2035 on December 19, 2024, setting the goal of reducing net emissions by between 61% and 66% compared to 2005, in a political context marked by internal disputes over the climate agenda.
Although the commitment was presented at the end of the Joe Biden administration and remains registered with the UN, the country’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on January 27, 2026, significantly alters the international interpretation of the weight of this target.
In this scenario, the document continues to serve as a formal reference, but the absence of the United States from the agreement reduces the diplomatic impact of the commitment and highlights the volatility of American climate policy over the years.
Japan Sets Targets Until 2040 and Expands Climate Horizon
On the other hand, Japan appears with an active NDC since February 18, 2025, combining targets for 2035 and 2040 in a strategy that seeks to indicate a broader path for emission reduction over time.
According to the presented plan, the country intends to reduce emissions by 60% by 2035 and by 73% by 2040, always in relation to the fiscal year 2013, while also maintaining the objective of achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
This approach reflects the complexity of Japanese energy decisions, which involve supply security, technological innovation, and a gradual reduction in dependence on fossil fuels in a highly developed industrial environment.
India Expands Participation with Emission Intensity Targets
More recently, India registered its NDC on April 24, 2026, with targets aimed at the period between 2031 and 2035, increasing the representation of emerging countries in this set of early submissions.
According to the document, the country aims to reduce its GDP emissions intensity by 47% by 2035, in addition to achieving approximately 60% of installed electricity capacity from non-fossil sources, maintaining a focus on economic growth combined with energy transition.
Considering the size of its population and the expanding demand for energy, India’s strategy follows a distinct model from the absolute targets adopted by developed economies, prioritizing indicators related to economic activity.
Diversity of economies increases the political weight of targets
Observing the set of these submissions, it becomes evident that the climate race involves not only environmental goals but also strategic positioning on the international stage.
While Brazil and India represent large emerging economies, Japan and the United States reflect the weight of developed nations, while the United Arab Emirates adds the perspective of a major global energy producer to the group.
As a result, the UN registry now functions as a public showcase of verifiable commitments, allowing transparent monitoring of which countries have decided to act early and which are still in the process of defining their actions.
Formal submission does not guarantee target fulfillment
Despite the relevance of these registrations, the formalization of an NDC does not, by itself, ensure that the objectives will be achieved over the coming years.
In practice, the fulfillment of targets depends on factors such as domestic legislation, availability of financing, implementation of public policies, and administrative continuity, elements that vary according to each country’s political and economic context.
Nevertheless, the early submission of these commitments tends to increase international pressure on governments that have not yet formalized their pledges, especially in a scenario where transparency and the timing of actions gain increasing weight in global climate negotiations.
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