China Breaks Tradition, Does Not Reserve U.S. Soybeans, Pressures Trump, and Transforms Brazil Into A Key Piece On The Global Grain Board

Written by Romário Pereira de Carvalho

Published on 20/09/2025 at 15:49

Imagem ilustrativa feira por IA

4 pessoas reagiram a isso.

China Breaks Tradition and Avoids Soy Contracts with the United States, Reinforcing Political Pressure Strategy Ahead of Crucial Leaders’ Meeting

For the first time since the late 1990s, China has started a soybean import season without buying a single ship from the United States. This move signals that Beijing has returned to using the grain as a political weapon in its dispute with Washington. Information comes from Bloomberg.

The impact is immediate. American farmers, who are harvesting record volumes, are facing prices close to the lowest in a decade.

The void in orders is surprising because, traditionally, the Chinese secure millions of tons right at the beginning of the export period.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW

Soybean as a Bargaining Chip

The absence of contracts until September 11 was confirmed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Last year, Americans accounted for 20% of China’s imports, equivalent to over US$ 12 billion.

More than half of total U.S. soybean exports were destined for the Asian country.

Now, the message is clear: Beijing uses grains as a pressure instrument. With comfortable stocks, it shows patience and the ability to wait, instead of reinforcing the rival’s position at a time of uncertainty.

Pressure Before the Meeting

President Xi Jinping is preparing to talk with Donald Trump. The meeting comes amid discussions on semiconductors and strategic minerals.

Before the meeting, China heightened tensions by revealing that Nvidia had violated antitrust rules.

According to agricultural analyst Even Pay from Trivium China, the soybean case reflects long-term planning.

The strategy is similar to the use of rare earths as a political tool. Additionally, importers are reacting not only to tariffs of over 20% on American soybeans but also to the uncertainty surrounding the future of these duties.

Farmers at the Limit

In the United States, rural producers are calling for an urgent solution. The fear is of a “commercial and financial cliff.”

They are pressuring the government to remove tariffs and ensure agreements. The sector is vital for Trump as it concentrates electoral support.

Meanwhile, Brazilian soybeans have gained ground. Chinese crushers and feed producers have bolstered their stocks with shipments from Brazil.

Some have even doubled their reserves, reducing the need to resort to American grain until 2026.

Tradition Interrupted

Normally, between October and February, U.S. soybeans supply the Chinese before the arrival of the South American harvest.

Importers typically secure volumes weeks in advance, but the current trade war has altered the routine.

Now, contracts that should have already been finalized have not occurred. Caution reflects both the risk of tariffs and the political signals coming from Beijing, which shows it is not willing to allow purchases without official approval.

Expansion of the Strategy

The maneuver is not limited to soybeans. China has also reduced imports of corn, wheat, and sorghum from the U.S.

At the same time, it has maintained purchases from countries like Brazil, Canada, and Australia. The initiative reinforces the goal of diversifying suppliers and reducing American dependence.

According to Andy Rothman, a former U.S. diplomat, agriculture will be central to negotiations between Trump and Xi.

He assesses that there will likely be no immediate agreement, but acknowledges that the topic will reemerge strongly in future meetings.

Small Gestures of Relief

Despite the pressure, there have been signs of moderation. China resumed purchases of U.S. oil after six months and suspended an investigation against Google, labeled as antitrust.

These gestures suggest an attempt to reduce friction ahead of a larger meeting.

Still, experts believe that soybeans will remain at the center of discussions. Instead of unrealistic targets, as in the so-called Phase One agreement, both sides are expected to discuss more viable commitments.

Internal Risks for China

The decision to avoid American soybeans is not without risks. Prices in Brazil have risen significantly since the beginning of the year.

If the South American harvest suffers any setbacks, China may have to tap into its reserves sooner than planned.

Moreover, a possible excess of imports, if a sudden agreement occurs, could lower domestic feed prices.

Chinese business managers interviewed by Bloomberg warned that an unexpected influx of American soybeans could destabilize the domestic market.

The Cost of Waiting

Without tariffs, the U.S. would continue to be one of the most competitive suppliers. Therefore, every month without purchases represents a greater cost for China, which pays more to avoid American grains.

During the first trade war, even imposing tariffs, Beijing granted exceptions for limited volumes. Now, analysts believe that something similar may occur if a new agreement emerges.

The dispute shows how soybeans have ceased to be just an agricultural commodity and have become a central piece of an economic war.

Trump needs the support of farmers, while Xi uses the grains as a strategic lever.

In the end, experts remind us: Chinese demand remains strong. If an understanding is reached, American soybeans will return to the market. The problem is political, not one of consumption.

With information from Bloomberg Línea.

0 Comentários

Mais recente

Mais antigos Mais votado

Feedbacks

Visualizar todos comentários

China Breaks Tradition, Does Not Reserve U.S. Soybeans, Pressures Trump, and Transforms Brazil Into A Key Piece On The Global Grain Board

China Breaks Tradition and Avoids Soy Contracts with the United States, Reinforcing Political Pressure Strategy Ahead of Crucial Leaders’ Meeting

Soybean as a Bargaining Chip

Pressure Before the Meeting

Farmers at the Limit

Tradition Interrupted

Expansion of the Strategy

Small Gestures of Relief

Internal Risks for China

The Cost of Waiting

Scientists enter a narrow, flooded cave 500 meters deep and find giant dinosaur footprints on the ceiling measuring up to 1.25 meters, preserved in such a rare way that a new type of trace had to be created.

A giant half-ton ring fell in Kenya from space, and more than a year later, scientists still do not know where it came from.

In Botswana, a salt flat of up to 16,000 km² that was once an African megalake spends months as an absolute white desert, but during the rainy season it transforms into a shallow sea that reappears from nowhere and can be seen from space in the middle of southern Africa.

After two years of internal discussions, Paraguay has finally regulated the law that opens the country to foreign technology and service companies with tax incentives that promise to create thousands of jobs and change the economy.

Map reveals how the Earth may look in 250 million years: continents will reunite in the Last Pangaea, 92% of the planet could become uninhabitable for mammals, and Spain appears among the rare possible exceptions.

About 6,000 residents live concentrated along a single street nearly 9 km long in the interior of Poland, with houses forming a continuous row and narrow agricultural strips emerging behind them, creating one of the most unusual rural patterns in Europe.

With 1,000 buses sent abroad, the Brazilian manufacturer consolidates the strength of national technology and takes on a leading role in public transportation across all of Latin America.

Rare rains are changing the Sahara, and satellites detect that an ephemeral lake has filled up again, covering 191 km², reaching a depth of 2.2 meters, and reigniting the discussion about the possible greening of the desert.

Petrobras finds oil on the seabed in the Campos Basin, hundreds of kilometers off the coast of Rio, and the discovery in a deep area raises curiosity about what else may be hidden in the pre-salt and how much this new area could surprise Brazil in the coming years.

A 38-day expedition in a region of Peru where 280,000 people live discovered 27 species that science had never recorded before, including a fish with a completely transparent bubble-shaped head and a rat that swims as if it were amphibious.

Nubank takes operations to the Emirates and targets the Arab world after a meeting in Abu Dhabi with the CEO and president, seeking funding, partnerships with banks, and new opportunities in Asia and North Africa.

China Breaks Tradition, Does Not Reserve U.S. Soybeans, Pressures Trump, and Transforms Brazil Into A Key Piece On The Global Grain Board

China Breaks Tradition and Avoids Soy Contracts with the United States, Reinforcing Political Pressure Strategy Ahead of Crucial Leaders’ Meeting

Soybean as a Bargaining Chip

Pressure Before the Meeting

Farmers at the Limit

Tradition Interrupted

Expansion of the Strategy

Small Gestures of Relief

Internal Risks for China

The Cost of Waiting

Scientists enter a narrow, flooded cave 500 meters deep and find giant dinosaur footprints on the ceiling measuring up to 1.25 meters, preserved in such a rare way that a new type of trace had to be created.

A giant half-ton ring fell in Kenya from space, and more than a year later, scientists still do not know where it came from.

In Botswana, a salt flat of up to 16,000 km² that was once an African megalake spends months as an absolute white desert, but during the rainy season it transforms into a shallow sea that reappears from nowhere and can be seen from space in the middle of southern Africa.

After two years of internal discussions, Paraguay has finally regulated the law that opens the country to foreign technology and service companies with tax incentives that promise to create thousands of jobs and change the economy.

Map reveals how the Earth may look in 250 million years: continents will reunite in the Last Pangaea, 92% of the planet could become uninhabitable for mammals, and Spain appears among the rare possible exceptions.

About 6,000 residents live concentrated along a single street nearly 9 km long in the interior of Poland, with houses forming a continuous row and narrow agricultural strips emerging behind them, creating one of the most unusual rural patterns in Europe.

With 1,000 buses sent abroad, the Brazilian manufacturer consolidates the strength of national technology and takes on a leading role in public transportation across all of Latin America.

Amid luxury shopping, million-dollar condominiums, and business centers, the Jardim Panorama favela becomes the target of intense territorial disputes following a change in strategy by the city hall, and residents fear losing their homes.

Trump threatens China with a 50% tariff if Beijing supplies weapons to Iran and offers U.S. oil; pressure rises with the blockade, but the measure faces a legal hurdle, without a decree.

China took advantage of the international conflict with Iran to seize a strategic island, and the worst part is that it is now militarizing the area.

After a devastating fire that left 3 injured and 200 intoxicated by smoke in the Red Sea, the most expensive warship ever built — $13.3 billion — returns to the front in Iran after quick repairs in Croatia.

It fell apart! The US and Iran fail to reach an agreement and global tension explodes — Vance’s exit from Pakistan raises alarms about Hormuz and the nuclear program.

Rare rains are changing the Sahara, and satellites detect that an ephemeral lake has filled up again, covering 191 km², reaching a depth of 2.2 meters, and reigniting the discussion about the possible greening of the desert.

Petrobras finds oil on the seabed in the Campos Basin, hundreds of kilometers off the coast of Rio, and the discovery in a deep area raises curiosity about what else may be hidden in the pre-salt and how much this new area could surprise Brazil in the coming years.

A 38-day expedition in a region of Peru where 280,000 people live discovered 27 species that science had never recorded before, including a fish with a completely transparent bubble-shaped head and a rat that swims as if it were amphibious.

Nubank takes operations to the Emirates and targets the Arab world after a meeting in Abu Dhabi with the CEO and president, seeking funding, partnerships with banks, and new opportunities in Asia and North Africa.