Cruise Ship Bookings for 2021 Are Already Rising Despite Several COVID-19 Outbreaks

In the last 45 days, as several cruise ships had severe COVID-19 outbreaks on board and, in many cases, were stranded for days before finding a place willing to let them dock and discharge passengers, CruiseCompete.com recorded a 40% increase in cruise bookings for 2021 compared to 2019, the company told the Los Angeles Times.

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The site president said that, based on available data, the demand for post-pandemic cruise bookings is still strong, an encouraging sign for cruise lines currently suffering a huge financial impact and seeing their market value plummet.

The Times also noted that a recent analysis by the Swiss bank UBS found that in the last 30 days, the number of cruise bookings for 2021 increased by 9% compared to the same period in 2020, including a substantial number of people booking new cruises instead of simply rebooking canceled cruises.

Indeed, UBS reported that 76% of people who had a cruise canceled in 2020 opted to accept credit for a future cruise in 2021, compared to 24% who accepted a refund.

The LA Times also cited a survey of 4,600 cruise customers conducted by the site CruiseCritic.com, in which 75% of respondents said they planned to continue booking cruises at the same rate as before the coronavirus outbreak ended, compared to 24% who said they planned to book cruises less frequently.

A Harris Poll survey published on March 31 also found that while the demand for cruises is still expected to recover at a slower rate than other travel methods, such as hotel bookings and airlines, only 22% of participants said it would take “a year or more” before they return to cruising.

The two largest outbreaks occurred on the Diamond Princess and Ruby Princess cruise ships, both operated by Carnival Cruise Corporation. After the outbreaks, Carnival saw its stock price plummet by 80%.

More recently, the Holland America MS Zaandam and MS Rotterdam docked in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, after an outbreak aboard the Zaandam, which sickened dozens of passengers and resulted in four deaths.

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After several coronavirus outbreaks on board, the CDC banned Carnival, Norwegian Cruises, and Royal Caribbean cruise lines from sailing in U.S. waters until at least July. Only these three companies represent $60 billion of the cruise market.

And as the vast majority of cruise lines are not incorporated or based in the U.S. to avoid corporate taxes, the industry as a whole was largely excluded from the $2 trillion economic stimulus package that President Donald Trump signed in March.

Now that cruise lines have had to cancel trips or sail empty ships, employees from lines like Holland America, Princess Cruises, and P&O Cruises based in Australia are facing cuts and layoffs, Mark Matousek reported to the press on Friday.

“Cruise lines, as evidenced by the stock, are in a world of pain right now with no clear light at the end of the tunnel,” said Patrick Scholes, analyst at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, recently to Meghan Morris of Business Insider, adding that the “millions of dollars” question about the dollar “for the survival of these cruise lines is when they can start their operations again.

Although cruise lines have suffered a significant financial impact and face serious challenges to get back on track after the crisis, the loyalty of their customer base and the increase in bookings, even amid a pandemic that spread on cruise ships, show a glimmer of hope for an industry in distress.