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University of Exeter Study Shows That in Countries Like China and India, Electric Trucks Are Already More Advantageous Than Diesel in Total Cost of Ownership.
Researchers from the University of Exeter in England claim that electric trucks could become more advantageous than diesel models in a shorter timeframe than expected.
The study indicates that in countries like China and India, these vehicles already have a lower total lifetime cost than traditional trucks.
The analysis provides data that supports the advancement of electrification in freight transport.
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Cost Comparison Shows Change in Scenario
The study was conducted by the EEIST program, led by the University of Exeter. Researchers analyzed the so-called total cost of ownership (TCO), which takes into account three main factors: the purchase price of the vehicle, energy costs (diesel or electricity), and maintenance throughout the truck’s lifetime.
The results reveal that in countries like China and India, medium and large electric trucks are already cheaper over their entire lifespan than their diesel counterparts.
According to the authors, smart public policies can accelerate this trend globally.
More Efficient Technology and Falling Prices
One of the central factors for this shift is the significant decrease in battery prices.
Lithium iron phosphate batteries, the most commonly used in electric trucks, have dropped 86% in cost between 2013 and 2024. This makes the initial cost more accessible and improves cost-effectiveness over time.
Additionally, electric trucks have lower operational costs. As they do not use internal combustion engines, they require less maintenance. They also exhibit superior energy efficiency, with less waste in energy conversion.
Market Already Shows Rapid Growth
In 2023, sales of electric trucks grew 35% compared to the previous year. Although they still represent only 0.9% of total global sales, the signs of expansion are clear. China leads the segment, but Europe and North America are also seeing significant progress.
Today, there are about 750 different models of electric trucks available globally. The variety of options shows that the sector is already responding to demand and preparing the ground for large-scale electrification.
Public Policies Drive the Transition
The study highlights that public policies are essential for accelerating the adoption of electric trucks. Three measures were identified as the most effective:
- Zero Emission Mandates: require that an increasing portion of vehicle sales be electric.
- Emissions Standards: set maximum CO₂ limits for the fleet.
- Subsidies: help create demand in the early stages of the transition.
Researchers assert that a single measure is not enough. A combination of these actions, if well-coordinated, can swiftly transform the sector.
Impacts Go Beyond the Economy
The electrification of freight transport brings multiple benefits. Diesel trucks account for nearly 40% of emissions from the road sector in countries like India, although they represent only 3% of the total fleet.
The replacement with electric models helps reduce these emissions.
Among the cited benefits are: improvement in public health with less air pollution; savings from reduced dependence on imported oil; and logistical gains, with reduced operational costs. The estimate is that air pollution contributes to around 400,000 deaths per year.
Infrastructure Remains a Challenge
Although the study does not directly focus on the deployment of infrastructure, it considers its costs in the TCO analysis.
For widespread adoption to become a reality, it will be necessary to expand charging stations and modernize electrical grids.
According to researchers, electric trucks represent a concrete opportunity to advance toward a more sustainable, efficient, and healthier model.
The expectation is that the combination of technology, economics, and public policies can make electric trucks not only viable but preferable.
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