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In An Unprecedented Step, China And The United States Sign A Historic Agreement To Avoid Nuclear Conflicts With The Use Of AI
On November 19, the world witnessed a grim milestone: one thousand days since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A conflict that has already caused countless human losses and significant geopolitical changes. On the same day, Vladimir Putin announced that the rules for the use of Russian nuclear weapons were being expanded.
With no negotiations in sight, the conflict continues to impact not only the countries directly involved but also the global balance of power. Days later, in Peru, the presidents of the United States and China, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, discussed an equally sensitive topic: the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in the use of nuclear weapons.
Nuclear Tensions Between The United States And China
The relations between the two largest economic and military powers in the world, the United States and China, have never been tranquil. In recent years, China has been heavily investing in the growth of its nuclear arsenal. In 2023, the country already possessed over 500 nuclear warheads, with prospects of reaching 1,000 by 2030, according to the U.S. Department of Defense.
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The United States, in turn, is modernizing its nuclear triad – composed of intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and strategic bombers. Furthermore, the country is looking to advance in technologically superior weapon systems, including the use of AI to enhance decision-making and operational processes.
However, the use of artificial intelligence in nuclear weapons raises specific questions. Design errors or failures in systems could lead to irreversible tragedies. It was precisely to avoid scenarios like this that Biden and Jinping signed a historic agreement: AI will never have autonomy to decide on the use of nuclear weapons.
Changes In Global Nuclear Doctrine
Historically, China has maintained a “strong>no first use” of nuclear weapons policy, a position that aligns with the defensive doctrine of several nuclear powers. However, recent information suggests that the country is reconsidering its stance. A new doctrine could allow for responses to perceived threats, not just direct attacks.
Meanwhile, the United States has not ruled out the preventive use of nuclear weapons in the face of existential threats. This posture generates confidence among powers and reinforces the need for agreements that limit the risks of nuclear conflict.
Taiwan: The Point Of Greatest Tension
The Taiwan issue continues to be one of the main friction points between the United States and China. For China, the island is a rebellious province that needs to be reincorporated into Chinese territory. The Chinese government has threatened several times to use military force to achieve this goal.
On the other hand, the United States maintains consistent military support for Taiwan, providing weapons and resources. Despite this, Taiwan does not possess nuclear weapons and is prohibited from developing them, which increases its reliance on allies like the U.S.
During the meeting in Lima, Biden and Jinping agreed that, despite the divergences over Taiwan and other issues, it is essential to maintain human control over nuclear decisions. This position not only prevents the reckless use of AI but also signals an openness for future dialogues between the two powers.
An Uncertain Future, But With Hope
The decision to exclude artificial intelligence from the decision-making process regarding nuclear weapons represents a rare moment of consensus in times of increasing global polarization. However, many analysts question whether this stance will be maintained in future political scenarios.
For example, if Donald Trump is elected, will he maintain the decision to limit the use of AI in nuclear matters? Or, in a scenario of even greater technological advancement, would the pressure to include AI in these processes render this agreement obsolete?
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