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With a population of 1.455.132.618, the world's most populous country continues to encourage policies to increase the birth rate and balance future demographic challenges.
India overtook China as the world's most populous country in 2023. With 1.455.132.618 inhabitants in October 2024, the country now accounts for 17,8% of the global population. Even so, some southern states are urging people to have more children.
In recent decades, the population India's population has grown exponentially. Between 1975 and 2010, the number of inhabitants doubled, reaching one billion in the year 2000. This population explosion was accompanied by rapid economic and social development.
However, the fertility rate has fallen dramatically over the same period. From 5,7 births per woman in 1950, it has fallen to the current level of 2,0. This figure, below the “replacement rate” of 2,1 births per woman, has worried local authorities.
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Measures and alert in southern India
States like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are leading the debate on fertility rates. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has warned of a “demographic time bomb”. He said the low fertility rate is threatening the economic and social balance of the region.
In response, the state abandoned its political of two children for local elections. Telangana, a neighboring state, may soon follow suit. In addition, there are discussions about financial incentives for larger families.
Experts say five southern Indian states, once pioneers in population control, now have fertility rates below 1,6. This rate is similar to that of European countries facing serious demographic crises.
Political and economic impacts on the world's most populous country
Low birth rates in southern states raise concerns about political representation. In 2026, India will conduct a new delimitation of electoral seats. This process allocates seats in parliament based on the population of each state.
Representatives from economically prosperous regions fear losing seats in parliament. Srinivas Goli, a professor of demography, explained that these states could be penalized for their effective population control policies. He points out that these regions contribute significantly to federal revenues.
Furthermore, changes in the distribution of federal revenues among states may accentuate regional inequalities. The current allocation favors more populated areas, which are often less economically developed.
The global dilemma of aging
India is not the only country facing population challenges. In Europe, falling birth rates are putting pressure on welfare systems and public finances. The European Union has highlighted the impact of an ageing population, with fewer citizens of working age.
In the United States, experts are warning of a “silver tsunami.” Projections indicate that by 2035, the number of elderly people will outnumber children for the first time.
Japan faces a similar problem. The birth rate continues to decline, while in North Korea, severe birth control measures have been reported. In sub-Saharan Africa, the situation is the opposite. The population is expected to double by 2050, according to UN estimates.
A critical decision
India is heading into a future of complex demographic decisions. As it seeks to balance economic development and social well-being, the challenge will be to deal with profound population shifts. With scenarios changing around the world, India’s response will be closely monitored by the international community.
