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A historic increase in electricity bills is approaching! With more than R$300 billion in additional costs approved in 2024, Brazilian consumers face a devastating impact on tariffs by 2050. Controversial measures, subsidies and controversial decisions make electricity one of the biggest financial challenges for families in 2025.
If there's one thing that's keeping Brazilians up at night, it's the growing impact on their pockets caused by electricity bills.
The year 2024 brought a wave of adjustments and controversial measures that promise to extend until 2050, representing a considerable burden for consumers.
What’s behind these increases? Who really pays the final bill? The details reveal a web of political and economic decisions that turn every kilowatt into a battle to keep the budget balanced.
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In the second half of 2024, the National Front of Energy Consumers and the consultancy PSR presented an alarming projection: more than R$300 billion in additional costs will be passed on to consumers over the next few decades.
Second article published this Saturday (04) by the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo, this amount includes everything from subsidies approved by Congress to adjustments related to the tariff of Itaipu, one of the largest hydroelectric plants in the world.
According to Luiz Eduardo Barata, president of the Front, “we spent the year trying to contain increases, but each victory was followed by a new measure that brought us a setback.”
Tariff increase for 2025
For the year 2025, the scenario is particularly worrying. Economists from FGV Ibre, such as Andre Braz, estimate that tariffs are expected to increase by an average of 10%, exceeding the official inflation rate (IPCA), which should close around 5%.
This means a direct impact of 0,4 percentage points on inflation next year. Since electricity accounts for around 4% of family income, any increase represents a significant burden on the budget.
Tortoises in the offshore wind project
Among those mainly responsible for the increase is the so-called PL for offshore wind farms, approved in the Senate in 2024.
The project, originally aimed at regulating offshore energy generation, was filled with “jabutis” — amendments unrelated to the original proposal, including subsidies for coal.
If such amendments are not vetoed, the impact could add up R$241 billion by 2050, resulting in a 7% increase in the electricity bill.
Itaipu: a special case
The binational Itaipu plant also contributed to the increase.
Although the debt for its construction was paid off in 2023, the price of the energy generated was supposed to fall to US$ 11 per kW, but it was maintained at US$ 19,28 until 2026.
Experts estimate that this difference represents an additional cost of US$640 million per year, totaling R$11 billion over the period.
The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) announced measures such as a cashback of US$ 300 million to minimize the impact, but consumers continue to pay more.
Energy Development Account (CDE) on the rise
Another critical point is the significant increase in Energy Development Account (CDE), which concentrates subsidies and charges.
In 2025, the CDE budget is expected to reach a record R$40,6 billion, with a forecast of reaching R$50 billion by 2028.
The main contributors include tariff discounts (40%), social tariff subsidies (15%) and universalization programs such as Luz para Todos (10%).
“Each new measure to encourage renewable energy or serve low-income populations increases the cost for the average consumer,” explained Donato da Silva Filho, director of Volt Robotics. He emphasizes that, despite being meritorious, these initiatives require greater control to avoid distortions.
Controversial provisional measures
MP 1.232, approved in 2024, extended subsidies for investors in renewable energy for another three years.
This added R$50 billion in final costs to consumers by 2050. MP 1.212, intended to resolve problems with the generation and transmission of clean energy, also did not escape criticism for its lack of transparency.
Who pays the bill?
Ultimately, the end consumer is the one who suffers the most from these measures. Whether due to direct costs in the tariff or indirect effects on inflation, electricity becomes a growing challenge.
According to Lucien Belmonte, spokesperson for the Union for Energy, “the discourse of reducing tariffs does not reflect the reality we live in.”
How are you dealing with the increases in your electricity bill? Do you believe the current subsidy model is sustainable? Leave your opinion in the comments!
