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At less than five dollars a pair, Asian footwear has become a tough competitor on the shelves. But blaming only China would be simplistic: high interest rates, indebted families, and the American tariff also weighed in. The sector’s own entity recognizes that the crisis had more than one villain throughout the year.
A pair of Chinese shoes arrived in Brazil in 2025 costing an average of $4.50, a price almost impossible for domestic manufacturers to match. According to Abicalçados, the entity representing the Brazilian footwear industry, this competition helped to reduce national production by 1.9%, contributed to the closure of about 3,000 jobs, and led imports to the highest volume in ten years, in a year that the sector classified as full of challenges.
The data is from the 11th edition of the Footwear Industry Report – Brazil 2026, released in early June 2026 by Abicalçados. First of all, it is fair to note that the numbers and analysis come from an entity that defends the interests of national manufacturers, and that the sector itself recognizes that the crisis had several causes, not just the Chinese competition, such as high interest rates, family indebtedness, and the tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian products.
The price that the national industry cannot beat
With a pair of Chinese shoes entering the country for about $4.50, Brazilian manufacturers face tough competition, especially in segments more sensitive to price, where the consumer tends to prioritize the cheaper product, regardless of origin.
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This scenario helped boost imports, which grew by 20.6% and reached 43.2 million pairs, the highest volume recorded by the country in the last decade.
The pressure came mainly from Asia: China, Vietnam, and Indonesia together accounted for 78.5% of the pairs imported by Brazil in 2025.
And new competitors are emerging, with imports from Paraguay growing by 76.1% and those from the Philippines advancing more than 120% in value.
Factories emptier and production declining
The advance of imports coincided with a moment of weaker demand in the country.
National production fell to 847.5 million pairs, and the use of installed factory capacity dropped to 73%, the lowest level in three years, which means, in practice, that about one in four industry machines was idle throughout the year.
This cooling has explanations that go beyond external competition.
With families more indebted and income growing at a slower pace than in 2024, many consumers prioritized durable goods and cut spending on items like clothing and footwear.
The retail of textiles, clothing, and footwear advanced only 1.3% in volume for the year, a performance below commerce as a whole, which reinforces that the problem is not limited to imported products.
The impact on employment and the strength of the Northeast
The footwear industry ended 2025 with 271.4 thousand formal jobs, a decrease of 1.1%, equivalent to about 3,000 jobs closed in the country, with Rio Grande do Sul, the main export hub of the sector, recording the largest decline of 5.7%, reflecting its strong dependence on foreign sales.
On the other hand, states more focused on the domestic market performed better: Bahia and Paraná grew by 7.1% in jobs, and Paraíba advanced by 3.3%.
This movement helped consolidate the Northeast as the country’s major production hub, a region that today accounts for 50.5% of all national footwear production in pairs, showing an important geographical reconfiguration within the industry itself.
The weight of the U.S. tariff hike
If the domestic market became more competitive, the external scenario also worsened.
In 2025, the United States expanded tariffs on Brazilian products, affecting the footwear sector, and the measure caused a drop of approximately one-third in monthly exports to the American market in just four months, according to Abicalçados.
Even so, the United States remained the main destination in revenue for Brazilian footwear, with $211.7 million in purchases, although 2.1% below 2024.
In total, exports ended the year at $958 million, a decrease of 1.8%.
It is worth noting that, according to the executive president of the entity, Haroldo Ferreira, the drop in exports had other factors besides the USA, with declines also in sales to countries like Argentina, Chile, and Spain.
Why blaming only China would be simplistic
It is important to maintain balance in the analysis of this complex scenario.
Although cheap Chinese shoes are a relevant pressure factor, Abicalçados itself recognizes that 2025 was like “two years in one,” with a first half heated by economic activity and exports, followed by a second half marked by a slowdown in consumption and household debt.
In other words, the sector’s crisis results from a combination of factors: high interest rates, weaker consumption, American tariffs, and Asian competition.
It is also worth remembering that low prices benefit lower-income consumers, who find more affordable footwear, making the debate more complex than a simple dispute between “national product” and “imported.”
Furthermore, the Lula government announced the end of the tax on imported purchases up to $50, a measure that tends to further boost the entry of foreign products.
What to expect from 2026
The prospects for the sector remain surrounded by uncertainties.
In the most pessimistic scenario of Abicalçados, national production could fall another 1.2% in 2026, while in the most optimistic it would advance only 1.4%, with exports still pressured by American tariffs and the slowdown of the Argentine economy, an important commercial partner of Brazil in the sector.
For an industry that moves around R$ 40 billion per year and employs more than 271 thousand people, the challenge goes beyond simply returning to growth.
The big question now is how much space Brazilian manufacturers will be able to preserve in an increasingly competitive market with foreign competitors, many of them selling a pair of shoes for less than five dollars, a price level that redefines the rules of the game.
The arrival of Chinese shoes at $4.50 is the symbol of a profound challenge faced by the Brazilian footwear industry, which saw its production, employment, and exports decline in 2025.
Even so, as the sector’s own entity acknowledges, reducing the crisis to a “Chinese invasion” would be simplistic: interest rates, consumption, indebtedness, and the tariff policy of the United States form a complex puzzle.
The future of the sector will depend as much on competitiveness and innovation as on policies that balance the protection of the national industry with consumer access to cheaper products.
And you, when buying footwear, do you prioritize price or prefer the national product even if it costs more? Do you think Brazil should protect its industry more or that competition benefits the consumer? Leave your comment, share your opinion on the topic, and share the article with those interested in the economy, industry, and the future of employment in Brazil.
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