Elon Musk throws cold water on hopes of colonizing Mars by stating that, at the current rate, he and most of us will not live to see humanity set foot on the Red Planet.
In a comment that made many people stop and think, Elon Musk recently stated that he will “definitely be dead” before humans reach Mars — and, according to him, most of us do too. The statement was made during the Satellite 2020 conference in Washington, DC, and raises questions about the future of space exploration and the feasibility of turning the dream of colonizing Mars into a reality within our lifetime.
When it comes to space exploration, the name Elon Musk is almost inevitable. Since the founding of SpaceX in 2002, the entrepreneur has led missions that previously seemed like science fiction. With more than 370 Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rocket launches, SpaceX has established itself as a key player in the modern space race game.. But despite advances, Elon Musk appears less optimistic about the timeline for reaching Mars.
”…I will definitely be dead before we go to Mars” reports Elon Musk
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During the Satellite 2020 conference, Elon Musk was direct: “If it takes us 18 years just to prepare to put the first people into orbit, we need to improve our rate of innovation or, based on past trends, I will definitely be dead before we get to Mars“. Musk's reflection is a sobering reminder that despite the enthusiasm, the technological and financial reality of space exploration may fall far short of our expectations.
Costs involved in getting people and materials to the Red Planet are, in fact, astronomical
Musk is not alone in his skepticism. Although the colonization ambitions of Mars are enormous, the challenges are equally enormous. The costs involved in getting people and materials to the Red Planet are astronomical. To give you an idea, Musk estimated that, in 2017, the cost per ton of material sent to Mars was around US$140.000. — which, adjusted for inflation, amounts to about $200.000 per ton in 2023. The total cost of establishing a functional settlement on Mars could easily exceed $200 billion, which requires a global economy prepared for investments of this magnitude.
It does not stop there. Elon Musk has grandiose visions of mass colonization of Mars, even estimating that the cost of moving there could be below US$500.000 — or even less than US$100.000. However, even these more “accessible” numbers still represent a major challenge for the majority of citizens. With an average annual income of $56.940 in the United States, the dream of Mars seems distant to most.
Elon Musk mentioned that at best we could see a settlement in Mars already in 2050
In addition to costs, there is also the issue of time. Elon Musk mentioned that, in the best case scenario, we could see a settlement on Mars as early as 2050. However, the numerous delays to NASA's Artemis missions and SpaceX's Starship development show that this timeline may be too optimistic. Geopolitical complexity, technical difficulties and the need to develop self-sustainable technologies for survival on Mars These are challenges that can easily push this dream forward for a few more decades.
It's a marathon not a sprint
Despite all these challenges, Elon Musk continues to be one of the greatest defenders of exploration space and the colonization of Mars. However, he is also realistic about current limitations. He knows that without a revolution in our rate of innovation and the way we approach space exploration, he, and possibly many of us, will not be around to witness the realization of this dream.
The reality is that the journey to Mars is still a marathon, not a sprint. And while Musk continues to push the limits of what's possible, he also reminds us that time is relentless. If we don't accelerate, the dream of colonizing Mars can remain just that—a dream.
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It seems that the dream of setting foot on the Red Planet is still a long way off. Comment what you think: will we live to see this happen or is Musk right and only the next generations will enjoy this adventure?