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Between December 2025 and January 2026, the number of rural settlements in extreme drought conditions almost tripled in the country, according to official monitoring by Cemaden. Minas Gerais concentrated 15 of the 32 most severe cases recorded in the period.
Drought has once again raised an alert in rural areas of Brazil. Data from the National Center for Monitoring and Natural Disaster Alerts, Cemaden, show a significant intensification of drought in rural settlements between December 2025 and January 2026.
According to official monitoring, the number of settlements classified as being in extreme drought conditions rose from 12 to 32 in just one month. In the same period, settlements categorized as being in severe drought more than doubled, increasing from 176 to 366.
The advance is concerning because it directly affects rural communities that depend on water for agricultural production, animal husbandry, local supply, and maintaining family income.
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Minas Gerais concentrates almost half of the settlements in extreme drought
Among the 32 rural settlements in extreme drought recorded in January 2026, Minas Gerais appears as the most affected state, with 15 cases. Following are Mato Grosso, with 9 settlements, Tocantins, with 4, São Paulo, with 2, and Pernambuco, with 1.
The concentration in Minas Gerais reinforces a situation that had already been observed by Cemaden itself. In December 2025, the agency pointed to the persistence of severe to extreme drought conditions in a large part of the state, in addition to southern Goiás and portions of São Paulo. The report also highlighted that the water deficit remained particularly accentuated in Minas Gerais, with continuous impacts on water systems and productive activities. This scenario appears in the December 2025 survey released by the agency.
In practice, this means that drought does not appear merely as an isolated climatic data point. It affects the soil, vegetation, water availability, and production capacity in areas where many families directly depend on agriculture.
What does extreme drought mean?
The classification of extreme drought indicates a more severe situation than moderate or severe drought. It is usually associated with a set of factors, such as prolonged lack of rain, reduced soil moisture, vegetation stress, and the risk of direct impact on crops, pastures, springs, and reservoirs.
In the case of rural settlements, the problem is even more sensitive because these areas generally concentrate small producers, family farmers, and communities with less financial adaptive capacity in the face of production losses.
When rain fails for several months, the effects appear in a chain: the soil loses moisture, pastures weaken, agricultural production falls, animals suffer from lack of food and water, and families become more dependent on external support or alternative supply sources.
Severe drought also surged in rural areas
In addition to the advance of extreme drought, data on severe drought reveals that the problem is broader. The number of settlements in this condition jumped from 176 to 366 between December 2025 and January 2026.
This increase indicates that more rural areas are approaching the most critical stage. Even when not yet reaching extreme drought, settlements in severe drought can already face significant losses in agriculture, difficulty in maintaining livestock, reduced water availability, and greater social vulnerability.
The scenario is concerning because January is usually an important month for rainfall patterns in several regions of the country. When humidity recovery does not occur sufficiently during this period, the effects can prolong and compromise the following months.
Social impact: why are settlements more concerning?
Drought in large productive areas is already concerning, but its advance in rural settlements has an even stronger social component. These communities often depend on small crops, subsistence production, animal husbandry, and local food sales.
With drought, income can fall rapidly. The loss of a harvest or the need to buy water and feed can pressure families already operating on small margins. In more vulnerable regions, drought can also increase the cost of living, reduce food supply, and expand reliance on public programs.
Another critical point is water supply. In many rural areas, water comes from wells, cisterns, springs, small dams, or water trucks. When drought intensifies, these sources may no longer be sufficient.
Minas Gerais was already under water alert
The prominence of Minas Gerais in the survey is not by chance. The state appears in recent Cemaden reports as one of the areas most affected by water deficit. In December 2025, the agency pointed out that the situation in Minas remained critical, with repercussions on water systems and productive activities.
Minas has a combination that helps explain the concern: large territorial extension, strong presence of agriculture and livestock, many rural communities, and dependence on rainfall regimes that can vary significantly between regions.
When drought sets in agricultural areas, the effects can impact everything from small producers to larger supply chains. The reduction of water in the soil also increases vulnerability to fires, vegetation loss, and degradation of productive areas.
Other monitored areas also show signs of pressure
Cemaden’s January 2026 bulletin did not only analyze rural settlements. The agency also monitored drought in indigenous lands, conservation units, and agro-productive areas.
In indigenous lands, there was an increase in the number of areas in moderate drought, which rose from 45 to 53, and severe drought cases increased from 7 to 8 between December 2025 and January 2026. In conservation units, the most critical situation remained relatively stable: two units remained in extreme drought, while those in severe drought saw a slight reduction, from 12 to 11.
In agro-productive areas, Cemaden reported that 237 municipalities registered more than 80% of their agro-productive areas under drought conditions in January. Despite representing a decrease compared to the 269 municipalities observed in December, the number still indicates significant pressure on rural production.
The alert for the coming months
The advance of drought in rural settlements shows that the problem needs to be closely monitored. Even if some regions receive punctual rain, this is not always enough to reverse the accumulated soil deficit, recover pastures, or re-establish reservoirs.
For rural communities, the difference between severe and extreme drought can mean loss of production, increased costs, and the need for emergency measures. Therefore, Cemaden’s monthly monitoring serves as an important tool to guide governments, producers, technical assistance agencies, and civil defense.
The jump from 12 to 32 settlements in extreme drought in just one month indicates that the scenario can change rapidly. And, with Minas Gerais leading the number of most severe cases, the state becomes one of the main points of attention at the beginning of 2026.
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