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Get ready to pay more for gasoline! With the increase in ICMS in February, the impact will be felt in your pocket and in inflation. Petrobras is monitoring the market, while international prices rise and the dollar remains under pressure. Find out how these factors can influence your routine in 2025 and what to expect from the fuel market in the coming months.
Get ready, drivers! The price of gasoline in Brazil is about to rise again, and the impact goes far beyond fueling.
With the beginning of February as a milestone, the increase in ICMS on fuels promises to further tighten consumers' pockets and intensify pressure on inflation.
But that's not the only factor on the horizon that could move the market.
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According to official sources, as reported by Folha de S.Paulo, the increase in the ICMS tax rate on gasoline and ethanol will be R$0,10 per liter, raising it from R$1,37 to R$1,47.
Diesel and biodiesel will suffer an increase of R$0,06 per liter, going from R$1,06 to R$1,12.
These adjustments, combined with the appreciation of the dollar and the recovery of international oil prices, can have consequences both on the final price of fuel and on the population's cost of living.
Imminent adjustment: direct impacts on your pocket and inflation
The year 2025 began with significant gaps in gasoline and diesel prices.
Although Petrobras has not yet announced official increases in its refineries, the prices at the pumps already reflect the weight of imports and market fluctuations.
According to a recent survey by Edenred Ticket Log, in December 2024, the average price of S-10 diesel closed at R$6,27 per liter, marking an increase of 2,79% over the year.
Gasoline and ethanol reached R$6,29 and R$6,47 per liter, respectively.
Inflationary pressure tends to worsen with the new values, since gasoline has a significant weight in the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA).
The combination of high exchange rates and high oil prices also makes it difficult to reduce interest rates in the country, creating a challenging scenario for the Brazilian economy.
Petrobras' stance and the influence of the international market
While Petrobras is cautious and monitoring market behavior, the Mataripe Refinery, controlled by Acelen, has been making frequent adjustments.
On December 26, 2024, for example, Acelen increased the prices of gasoline and diesel, citing the rise in the dollar as the main justification.
Furthermore, the return of pressure on the price of oil has been gaining prominence. In just two weeks, the price of a barrel rose from US$ 72 to US$ 76.
According to Goldman Sachs, sanctions on Iran, driven by Donald Trump's government in the United States, could maintain tension in the markets, with the barrel potentially reaching US$78 in June.
Petrobras' role in trying to contain impacts
Magda Chambriard, president of Petrobras, reinforced in a recent interview with Folha de S.Paulo that the state-owned company is committed to “Brazilianizing” fuel prices.
Despite the good financial results, it recognizes the challenges imposed by fluctuations in the international market.
Speaking to Band, Magda highlighted that any decision regarding adjustments will be taken with caution.
However, even without opting for new increases, Petrobras faces a significant gap in relation to import parity.
According to the Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers (Abicom), on January 4, 2025, diesel showed a difference of R$0,67 per liter, while gasoline recorded a deficit of R$0,38 in refineries.
Forecasts for February: Consumers on alert
The impact of the increase in ICMS will be widely felt by drivers and also by economic sectors that directly depend on the transportation of goods.
With the additional burden on consumers' pockets, the Brazilian economy may face yet another obstacle in its recovery.
For those who depend on vehicles on a daily basis, the situation reinforces the need for strategies to save on fuel consumption.
Furthermore, monitoring promotions and choosing stations with more competitive prices become even more essential.
What to expect from the fuel scenario in 2025?
With variations in the international market, Petrobras' pricing policy and changes in taxation, the fuel outlook remains uncertain.
However, one thing is certain: Brazilian drivers will need to prepare for a year of challenges in terms of fuel supply and expense control.
What do you think about this increase in fuel prices? How does it impact your daily life? Leave your opinion in the comments!
