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Founder of MRV and Banco Inter, Menin denounces the “perverse cycle” caused by high interest rates in Brazil. According to him, the current monetary policy stifles credit, increases default and threatens economic sustainability. Menin calls for a union between the government and economic agents to stabilize the market and avoid irreversible damage.
The Brazilian economy may be heading towards a dead end, where high interest rates threaten both market stability and the population's pockets.
This is the warning from Rubens Menin, founder of MRV, Banco Inter and CNN Brasil, in an interview with Folha de S.Paulo.
Menin outlined a scenario of worrying instability caused by the rise in the Selic rate, which could reach 15% by the end of 2025.
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In the second paragraph of his analysis, Menin made it clear that the problem goes beyond the cold numbers of monetary policy.
High interest rates directly affect access to credit, reducing investment and consumption capacity, which harms fundamental sectors such as real estate.
According to the businessman, we are living in a cycle where “[the market] keeps bleeding, bleeding, until a moment of no return.”
Impacts on the real estate sector
The real estate sector, where MRV stands out as one of the largest companies in the market, is one of the most affected by the increase in the Selic rate.
Despite the efforts of programs such as Minha Casa, Minha Vida and SBPE (Brazilian Savings and Loan System) to mitigate the effects of high rates, the scarcity of resources has made it difficult to offer credit to different income brackets.
Menin highlighted that, although these mechanisms have some control, they are not enough to sustain the growth of the sector.
“High interest rates are a real trap for the economy,” Menin said. “They compromise people’s income and weaken not only the real estate market, but also other essential sectors.”
Criticism of government communication
Another point highlighted by Menin is the lack of clarity in federal government communication, especially in relation to fiscal responsibility.
Confusing and contradictory statements have generated uncertainty in the market, worsening the volatility of future interest rates and fueling a negative cycle.
In his words, “We are losing the communication war, and when that happens, the market goes into a state of alert.
Future interest rates rise, and the Central Bank intensifies its control measures. The result is a perverse cycle that harms the entire economy.”
Menin argues that government and the private sector must work together on a common agenda to stabilize expectations and ensure a more predictable business environment.
Reflections on the banking sector
The impacts are not limited to real estate industry. In the banking sector, high interest rates have also caused significant damage.
Increased default rates, greater credit restrictions and a decline in the ability to grant loans are some of the problems faced.
At Banco Inter, where Menin works as one of the founders, the strategy has been to tighten the criteria for risk analysis, which ends up mainly harming the most vulnerable sections of the population.
Menin reinforces that “credit restrictions are harmful for both people and companies, as they make it difficult to raise funds in times of crisis.”
Need for alignment
For Menin, the current scenario requires a collective and coordinated effort. Although he recognizes the importance of the Central Bank's independence, he also highlights that fiscal and monetary policies need to be better aligned.
“We are living in an extremely delicate moment, where skepticism regarding the Brazilian economy is increasingly evident,” he stated.
This lack of harmony between economic spheres makes the business environment less predictable and drives away investments, further hindering the country's growth.
For the businessman, it is essential that dialogue between economic agents is strengthened to avoid a worsening of the crisis.
Is the solution possible?
Brazil's economic future depends on coordinated actions between the government, private sector and society.
Menin believes that, with the correct alignment of economic policies and clear communication, it is possible to reverse the perverse cycle of high interest rates.
But the question remains: Is Brazil ready to face this change and seek sustainable solutions?
