SP’s interior may face a sharp autumn shift, with heat before cold, rapid temperature drop, and frost risk in the state’s south.
In 2026, the state of São Paulo enters a phase of meteorological attention in autumn: after weeks with average temperatures predicted above normal in much of Brazil, the second half of May could mark a stronger shift in the country’s south-central region, with the advance of continental cold fronts and the entry of polar air inland. According to Climatempo, in a bulletin published on March 18, the first more intense cold of autumn tends to occur at the end of May, impacting São Paulo, parts of Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo, and areas of the Central-West.
The change is concerning because it’s not just an isolated drop in temperatures. Climatempo itself indicates that the autumn of 2026 should be less cold than normal on average, but with specific episodes of intense cold in the second half of May and in June, a period when there is even a risk of frost in the south of São Paulo state. This contrast between warmer days, drier weather, and the arrival of more organized cold air masses can amplify the sensation of a thermal shift in both urban and rural areas.
Above-standard heat precedes the arrival of polar air and increases risk
Before the cold sets in, the interior of São Paulo has been influenced by hot and dry air masses, which keep temperatures above average for the season. This scenario creates a typical transition environment:
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- warm afternoons with low humidity
- still relatively stable nights
- drier soil in agricultural areas
When polar air advances after this period, the temperature drop tends to be faster and more intense. This sudden change increases the risk of damage because plants, soil, and even urban structures do not undergo gradual adaptation.
Sharp drop in early mornings can lead to critical temperatures inland
With the arrival of the cold air mass, early mornings are the most sensitive time. Inland regions, and especially the south of São Paulo, may register sharp temperature drops during the night and early morning.
This pattern favors:
- formation of cold air near the ground
- rapid cooling in open areas
- greater intensity in lowlands
Even when daily highs do not drop drastically, lows can reach critical levels in just a few hours.
South of São Paulo concentrates the highest frost risk in the state
Among all regions of the state, the south of São Paulo appears as the area most susceptible to frost formation during the most intense cold episodes of autumn. This occurs due to combined factors:
- terrain favorable for cold air accumulation
- closer proximity to polar air masses coming from the South
- presence of sensitive agricultural areas
Climatempo indicates that there is a possibility of frost in this region in the second half of May and in June, depending on the intensity of cold air incursions.
Frost is not expected to be widespread, but it can occur locally with significant impact.
Crops and vegetables enter the zone of greatest concern
The most immediate impact of frost occurs on agricultural production. More vulnerable crops include:
- vegetables
- short-cycle crops
- pasture areas
- crops in early stages
Furthermore, producing regions may face localized losses, especially in lowland areas where cold air accumulates more easily.

The agricultural risk is high precisely because frost can occur after a period of heat that accelerates plant development.
Low-lying areas amplify the effect of cold and make the phenomenon more dangerous
Within São Paulo’s interior, not all areas respond in the same way to the entry of polar air.
The lowlands — lower regions of the terrain — act as points of cold air concentration during dawn.
In these locations, the temperature can drop more than in nearby areas, increasing the risk of frost even when the rest of the region does not present favorable conditions. This local effect makes the phenomenon more difficult to predict and more dangerous for producers and residents.
Previous low humidity favors rapid heat loss during the night
Another factor contributing to the sharp drop in temperatures is low air humidity. After dry periods, the soil and atmosphere retain less heat, allowing the temperature to drop more rapidly during the night.
This mechanism intensifies:
- radiative cooling
- frost formation
- daily thermal amplitude
The recent history of dry weather can potentiate the impact of the first more intense cold air mass.
Rural and urban infrastructure can also feel the effects of the thermal shift
In addition to agriculture, the sharp drop in temperature can affect other sectors. In rural areas, irrigation and management systems can be impacted. In urban areas, the sudden increase in cold can influence energy consumption, health, and the daily routine of the population.
Abrupt temperature changes can also increase the incidence of respiratory problems, especially in regions that had been experiencing a warm period.
The impact of cold goes beyond temperature and is reflected in the general functioning of the affected regions.
Episodes are expected to concentrate between late May and early June
According to meteorological projections, the most critical period for this type of thermal shift should occur between the second half of May and early June.
This interval marks the clearest transition between the warm autumn pattern and the first stronger incursions of polar air. It is at this moment that the climatic contrast reaches its peak and the risks become more evident.

With above-normal heat preceding the arrival of cold, dawns with sharp temperature drops, and risk of frost in specific areas, São Paulo’s interior enters a period of attention in autumn 2026. The combination of factors increases the sensitivity of crops, populations, and local systems to abrupt changes.
The direct question remains: will São Paulo’s interior be able to adapt in time to this thermal shift, or will it face more intense impacts precisely due to the speed of the change?

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