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With oil above US$ 100, consumers in the Southeast Asia rush for electric vehicles, crowding showrooms of BYD and VinFast and pressuring governments for charging and EV ecosystems.
In this scenario, brands like BYD and the Vietnamese VinFast have become protagonists in a race for electrification that was already growing before the conflict but gained urgency. The change is evident in consumer behavior, sales volume, and sector expectations: a consultancy projects that the crisis could bring up to 80 million new passenger electric vehicles to the global market by 2030.
Electric vehicle sales have surged in Asia in recent weeks, with consumers concerned about fuel costs seeking a direct alternative to escape the rising prices of gasoline and diesel. The push came from the spike in crude oil prices, which have risen about 50% since the beginning of the war in the Middle East and have again surpassed US$ 100 per barrel, increasing costs at gas stations.
What is driving the change: oil above US$ 100 and the math of the wallet
The engine of the turnaround is simple and repeated by those visiting dealerships: monthly cost. In Vietnam, consumers report that the increase in fuel spending has started to weigh on family decisions, driving the search for electric vehicles as a way to save money.
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In addition to direct savings, a practical factor mentioned by buyers emerges: less time spent in lines to refuel. With oil above US$ 100 and the uncertainty about how long the rise may last, the decision to switch gains an element of urgency that accelerates the market.
The numbers that explain the boom in Asia: Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia gain momentum
The region was already showing progress before the crisis, and the cited data reinforces the trend. Vietnam doubled its share of electric car sales last year and surpassed the United Kingdom, according to the energy think tank Ember.
In Thailand, the share of electric vehicles in sales reached 20%, up from just 1% in 2019. Indonesia has surpassed the United States in electric vehicle penetration. In Southeast Asia, sales rose to 55,000 units per month in the last quarter of 2025, compared to 32,000 per month the previous year, a jump that indicates an acceleration in the pace of adoption.
BYD and VinFast at the forefront: crowded showroom, record orders, and international expansion
In Vietnam, VinFast reported a 127% increase in annual sales in March, reaching 27,600 cars. A sales executive reported that, in the month, the showroom sold between 300 and 400 cars, above the typical range of 200 to 250 per month, with over 50% of customers trading gasoline cars for electric cars and an increase of about 30% in the number of visitors. To accommodate the demand, closing hours were extended.
Outside of Vietnam, BYD appears as one of the leading names in the Chinese offensive. At the Bangkok International Motor Show, held in early April, BYD secured the highest number of orders among all manufacturers, surpassing Japanese Toyota for the first time. In the Philippines, a BYD dealership manager in the outskirts of Manila described the flow of customers as “on another level,” directly associating the movement with rising fuel prices and the desire to run “only on electricity.”
What changes for car buyers: urgency, fueling costs, and quicker decisions
Analysts cited in the text point out that in many “structurally suitable” markets for electric vehicles, adoption has been slower because there was no urgency. The sudden spike in fuel prices changes this calculation and accelerates decisions that were previously postponed.
The energy crisis also affects Asia more acutely because several nations depend on shipments of crude oil and have few immediate alternatives to replace them. This makes the cost of fuel even more decisive, pushing part of consumption towards electrified options.
Global projections: up to 80 million new EVs by 2030 and long-term impact on oil
The global consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, cited by E&E News from Politico, assessed that the war could be a “turning point” for electric vehicles. The estimate is around 80 million new passenger electric vehicles entering the global market by 2030 as a result of the shock.
In a separate analysis, the same consulting firm stated that the disruption in the flow of oil and gas caused by the conflict could reduce global oil demand by 20% by 2050, as countries decrease their dependence on imported fuels and prioritize electrification.
Exports and goals: Chinese automakers accelerate outside China and BYD aims for 1.5 million in 2026
The advancement is not limited to internal Asian consumption. The largest Chinese automakers, including BYD and Geely Auto, have intensified efforts to sell abroad and expand production facilities outside of China.
Chinese electric vehicle exports, considering all manufacturers, doubled in March compared to the same month last year, according to the China Passenger Car Association, with Southeast Asia identified as an important market. BYD informed analysts that it expects its vehicle exports to exceed 1.5 million in 2026, above the target of 1.3 million announced in January.
The next steps: more charging, national policies, and demand beyond Southeast Asia
The text indicates that the installation of charging stations in the region is growing rapidly, a decisive point to sustain the new demand. In the week prior to the report, Jakarta promised to adopt “more serious measures” to accelerate the development of a national electric vehicle ecosystem, focusing on combating its “high level of energy consumption.”
The momentum is also appearing outside Southeast Asia. A cited research company states that electric vehicle registrations in Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand more than doubled in March, while they increased by over 50% in India and Australia, signaling that the impact of the oil shock is spreading to other economies in the region.
In your view, will this rise in oil prices accelerate the shift to electric vehicles in a lasting way and consolidate BYD and VinFast as key players, or will the momentum lose strength if fuel prices decrease?
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