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For the first time in modern history, three South American countries will account, alone, for half of the world’s oil growth in 2026 — and the EIA has just confirmed the scenario in an official report
South America’s oil has entered an unprecedented trajectory. As detailed by the official report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina will add up to 0.4 million additional barrels per day in 2026 — equivalent to 50% of all global growth forecasted for the year.
The number is historic. Globally, the EIA projects total growth of only 0.8 million barrels per day for 2026 — a result of coordinated OPEC+ cuts that limit the advancement of Arab and Russian producers. This means that South America’s oil is literally balancing the world market on its own.
In 2025, these three countries already accounted for 28% of global growth. In just 12 months, the share almost doubles. And the driving force is clear: new FPSOs coming into operation in Brazil, projects like Uaru in Guyana, and the accelerated expansion of Argentina’s Vaca Muerta.
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Brazil: the leader of South American oil set a record in October and prepares a new series of FPSOs
According to the EIA, Brazil consolidates its position as the largest oil producer in South America. In October 2025, the country reached for the first time the mark of 4.0 million barrels per day — a number achieved after more than a decade of investments in the Pre-Salt.
The most recent data is even better. In February 2026, Petrobras reached 5.3 million boe/d (barrels of oil equivalent per day), an increase of 16.4% year on year. In comparison, the Pre-Salt fields of the Santos Basin today represent 80% to 82% of all production operated by the state company.
Indeed, the leap is not casual. As recently reported by Click Petróleo e Gás, Petrobras approved a package of R$ 60 billion to drill the Sergipe-Alagoas pre-salt, which could add another 1 billion barrels to Brazilian reserves in the next five years.
In parallel, two additional FPSOs in the Búzios field — operated by Petrobras — will come into production between December 2025 and mid-2026. Alone, they should add 0.2 million barrels daily, equivalent to almost half of the South American growth forecasted for the year.
Guyana: the economy that grew almost 20% per year thanks to oil
If Brazil is a consolidated giant, Guyana is a recent economic phenomenon. South America’s oil has in the small Caribbean nation its boldest bet: the Stabroek offshore field, operated by ExxonMobil in partnership with Hess and CNOOC.
Guyana’s production jumped from zero in 2019 to nearly one million barrels daily forecasted for 2027. In 2026, it is expected to reach 140 thousand additional barrels per day, reaching 840 thousand bbl/d. The Uaru project, also scheduled to start this year, should add another 250 thousand barrels daily.
As detailed by Rio Times Online, the economic impact is extraordinary: Guyana’s GDP grew 19.3% in 2025 and is expected to record 16.2% in 2026. The country’s Natural Resources Fund reached US$ 3.82 billion at the beginning of 2026, accumulated in just a few years since production began.
In other words, Guyana is on its way to becoming the largest oil producer per capita in the world. In fact, with about 800 thousand inhabitants and production heading towards 1.15 million barrels daily, each Guyanese citizen generates more oil per day than any Saudi or Russian citizen.
Argentina: Vaca Muerta grows 30% and Buenos Aires dreams of the top 10 worldwide
Meanwhile, the third pillar of South America’s oil is Argentina. At this turning point, the country is already the fourth largest South American producer, behind Brazil, Venezuela, and Guyana — but it has a trajectory that could change the ranking in the next five years.
The numbers speak loudly. In 2024, Argentine production was 670 thousand b/d. In 2025, it rose to 740 thousand. For 2026, the EIA projects 810 thousand barrels daily, an increase of 15.3% year on year. Vaca Muerta — a shale formation in Patagonia — alone grows 30% in 2026.
As recently reported by Click Petróleo e Gás, Vaca Muerta generated a record energy surplus of US$ 7.8 billion in 2025 for Argentina, reversing the US$ 7 billion deficit recorded in 2013.
Indeed, long-term projections point to Argentina reaching 1.456 million barrels daily in 2030 — which would place the country among the 10 largest global producers. Before 2021, Argentine production was in sustained decline.
The contrast with OPEC+ holding back global supply
While South America’s oil surges, the global cartel pulls the rope in the opposite direction. OPEC+, formed by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and 9 other members, maintains coordinated cuts that limit global supply growth.
The consequence is dramatic. In 2024, producers outside the cartel increased supply by 1.1 million b/d, but OPEC+ cuts offset everything, resulting in a global drop of 0.2 million b/d. In 2025, recovery came with 2.2 million additional, with 1.7 million of them coming from outside the cartel.
In parallel, the United Arab Emirates leaves OPEC on May 1, 2026, signaling internal fragmentation of the bloc. This means that South America’s oil gains even more relative weight in the coming months, as the cartel loses coordination.
Consequently, the region has become a decisive lever for global price stability. Each additional barrel coming from the South Atlantic can prevent supply shocks in times of geopolitical tension.
The South Atlantic as the new energy frontier of the planet — and why South America’s oil becomes a strategic asset
Geographically, there is a clear pattern. The three leading countries of global growth are all facing the Atlantic — not the Pacific, not the Mediterranean Sea, not the North Sea. This facilitates shipping via tankers to Europe and North America without crossing sensitive points like the Strait of Hormuz.
To understand, each export terminal in the South Atlantic has become a strategic asset. The region gained even more relevance after geopolitical shocks in the Persian Gulf, where tensions between Israel, Iran, and regional powers constantly threaten the global transport of oil.
In comparison, Brazil today exports a large part of its oil to China — as shown in a report by Click Petróleo e Gás. But Europe also figures among the priority destinations, especially for light oil from the Pre-Salt and Guyana.
Economic and strategic impacts for Brazil
For Brazil, leading the world’s oil growth means substantial additional revenue in royalties, special participation, and taxes on Petrobras. Consequently, with Brent above US$ 100 and growing production, direct federal revenue from the sector could exceed R$ 250 billion in 2026.
To understand the size of the impact, this amount is equivalent to almost half of Brazil’s Bolsa Família budget — just in oil royalties, in a single fiscal year.
In parallel, the strategic position opens space for the country to have more voice in global forums like IEA, G20, and BRICS. In turn, each barrel produced in the Pre-Salt increases Itamaraty’s geopolitical weight when negotiating trade agreements and international climate rules.
According to analysts, the challenge now is to balance oil expansion with Brazil’s climate goals. As the country is also the world’s largest ethanol producer and has 83% renewable electricity matrix, the equation of Pre-Salt versus energy transition is at the center of the debate.
- 0.4 million b/d — joint growth forecast Brazil+Guyana+Argentina in 2026
- 50% — share of this trio in global oil growth in the year
- 4.0 million b/d — average Brazilian production in 2026 (annual average)
- 5.3 million boe/d — Petrobras peak in February 2026
- 140 thousand b/d — Guyana’s increment in 2026
- 810 thousand b/d — projected Argentine production in 2026
- +19.3% — Guyana’s GDP growth in 2025
Caveats: not all growth will be easy
Despite the positive numbers, there are real challenges. Brent prices may fall if OPEC+ loosens cuts, squeezing margins of new South American projects. Most Pre-Salt and Stabroek fields have a break-even above US$ 30 — comfortable today, but vulnerable in a downward cycle.
Moreover, political risks persist. Venezuela, the second-largest regional producer in theoretical volume, operates under heavy sanctions and production well below its technical potential. Any change in the Venezuelan scenario could reshape the region’s position as a whole.
Finally, there is the energy transition. Global oil demand is expected to weaken between 2030 and 2040, according to the International Energy Agency. South American investments, therefore, need to generate cash quickly — before the global demand curve changes forever.
The lingering question is uncomfortable. If the South Atlantic has become the engine of global oil growth, what happens when the world needs less? And will Brazil, the regional leader, be able to transform this short-lived revenue into long-term investments in education, infrastructure, and new clean energy? The time to decide is now.
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