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Case exposes how confidential information can generate million-dollar profits in prediction markets and raises global debate on ethics, security, and use of confidential data in military operations
What seemed to be just another strategic military operation by the United States quickly turned into an international scandal involving money, technology, and misuse of confidential information. A U.S. special forces sergeant was arrested after profiting over $400,000 — about R$ 2 million — by betting in advance on the capture of Nicolás Maduro on a prediction market platform.
The information was disclosed by the “U.S. Department of Justice,” with additional details published in outlets such as Fox News, indicating that the military personnel, identified as Gannon Ken Van Dyke, used classified data to gain a financial advantage even before the official announcement of the operation.
How the military turned secret information into a $410,000 profit in just a few days
According to the investigation, the sergeant placed a total of 13 bets on the Polymarket platform between December 27 and January 2, amounting to approximately $33,000. The most impressive detail is that these bets occurred just hours before the public confirmation of Maduro’s capture, announced by then-President Donald Trump.
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Moreover, the contracts acquired by the military operated simply: if the predicted event — in this case, a U.S. military operation in Venezuela by January 31 — occurred, each contract would pay $1. Thus, by buying when the values were extremely low, the potential return became exponential.
Consequently, after the announcement of the operation, called “Operation Absolute Resolution,” prices skyrocketed. The invested amount quickly grew, reaching an estimated profit of $410,000, according to data from Polymarket itself.
Meanwhile, records indicate that the account used for the bets had been created only a month earlier, further reinforcing suspicions of strategic use of insider information.
Investigation reveals attempts to conceal and cryptocurrency transactions abroad
As the case gained traction, authorities began to track the military’s financial movements. According to investigators, after receiving the profits, Van Dyke transferred a large portion of the money to a cryptocurrency wallet abroad. Subsequently, the funds were sent to a newly created account at an online brokerage.
However, the attempts at concealment did not stop there. On January 6, 2026, the sergeant requested the deletion of the account on Polymarket, falsely claiming to have lost access to the email. On the same day, he changed the email address linked to the digital wallet to another created weeks earlier that was not in his name.
Still, these atypical movements drew the attention of the market and the press, prompting an investigation that lasted months until culminating in the arrest of the military on Thursday (23).
According to Todd Blanche, acting U.S. Attorney General, “our men and women in service receive access to confidential information to carry out their missions safely and effectively, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive data for personal financial gain.”
In light of this, the sergeant now faces three charges of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, each carrying a maximum penalty of up to 10 years. Additionally, he also faces charges of electronic fraud, with a penalty of up to 20 years, and illegal monetary transaction, which could result in another 10 years in prison.
Prediction markets come under global scrutiny after scandal involving million-dollar bets
The case also brought to light the workings of so-called prediction markets, like Polymarket. These platforms allow users to bet on future events — from sports to politics and economics — using “yes” or “no” contracts.
In this model, when the event occurs, the contract pays $1. Otherwise, it loses the entire invested amount. Therefore, those who enter before information becomes public and correctly predict the outcome can achieve extremely high gains in a short period.
On the other hand, this type of operation raises serious questions about regulation, transparency, and misuse of insider information, especially when involving agents with access to highly sensitive data, such as military personnel and government authorities.
Thus, the scandal involving Gannon Ken Van Dyke not only exposes a serious individual misconduct but also raises a global alert about the risks of prediction markets in an increasingly connected and data-driven world.
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