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Growth expectation in pork consumption in 2026 loses strength due to high costs, international conflicts, and operational challenges in the productive sector
Since the beginning of 2026, the pork market in Brazil projected consistent growth.
According to the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA), the initial estimate indicated an increase of 2.5% in per capita consumption, reaching about 19.5 kg per inhabitant.
However, throughout the first months of the year, the scenario changed.
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For the economist José Kobori, the USA gained a trump card to “blackmail” Brazil and undermine China’s influence by classifying the PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorists, increasing the power to pressure companies, banks, and even Pix.
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The labor shortage has changed its face in Brazil: companies hire 80% more, but workers stay only 6.8 months in the job, the service market becomes a “revolving door,” and businesses spend increasingly more to train teams that soon leave.
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Chinese giant chooses SC to set up its first factory in Brazil, investing R$ 250 million and producing MRI machines costing R$ 10 million each, with 100 direct jobs and 5% of revenue allocated to research.
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After selling a unit for R$ 115 million to pay off debts, a traditional factory in SC founded in 1932 has a new R$ 64.8 million plan denied by the court and retains about 690 workers in Joinville.
This occurred because the escalation of tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran altered the global environment.
Additionally, the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for approximately 20% of the world’s oil, pressured fuel prices.
Rising diesel prices pressure costs and generate caution in the field
In light of this scenario, the increase in diesel has begun to worry the productive sector.
According to Nathália Rabelo, agribusiness analyst at the Faemg Senar System, the impacts are still moderate.
However, she stated that if the conflict prolongs, costs may rise more intensely.
Moreover, imported fertilizers also factor into the equation.
Thus, producers are adopting a cautious stance in the face of uncertainties.
Meanwhile, in Belo Horizonte, prices are already reflecting this pressure.
According to a survey by the Mercado Mineiro, released with the app comOferta.com, diesel prices rose 6.44% in just over a month.
As a result, the impact directly affects a state with about 12,290 pig farms, mainly in the Triângulo Mineiro.
In 2025, Minas Gerais recorded production of 678 thousand tons, an increase of 11% over 2024.
Still, there is no consolidated projection for the current scenario.
Industry already feels the impact and adjustments begin to emerge
On the other hand, the industry is already noticing more immediate effects.
According to Elias José Zydek, president of Frimesa, costs have risen rapidly.
Initially, freight costs increased by 7%, representing 6% of the cost structure.
Additionally, plastic packaging saw a rise of 25%, weighing 10% of total costs.
Thus, the direct impact reaches a 3% increase in final prices.
At the same time, the ABPA indicates that road freight costs have increased by up to 20%.
Moreover, packaging costs have risen by up to 30%.
Consequently, the sector is already considering passing these costs onto consumers.
It is worth noting that, until now, pork prices had been declining.
In the last month, there was a reduction of 1.21%, while over the past 12 months, the decline was 1.62%.
Labor shortage limits expansion of operations
In addition to costs, another challenge is gaining strength: the shortage of workers.
In this context, the cooperative Suinco, located in Patos de Minas, is facing difficulties in expanding.
Currently, the company has 1,500 employees, but needs an additional 150 professionals.
According to Bruno César, commercial manager, this limitation affected growth in 2025.
During that period, production was 55 thousand tons.
For 2026, the expectation is still for a growth of 10%, despite the challenges.
Snack segment grows and maintains positive outlook
In contrast, not all segments are facing contraction.
Rudolph Snacks, a company of the Rudolph Foods Company group, maintains optimistic projections.
Between 2024 and 2025, the company grew by 27%.
In addition, it projects an increase of 23% in 2026.
According to Raphael Guedes Mattos, sales manager, factors such as more holidays and the World Cup boost consumption.
Thus, products like cracklings and pork rinds gain prominence for being practical and associated with leisure.
In this scenario, amid global pressures, rising costs, and operational challenges, the pork market continues to transform — but is the Brazilian consumer prepared to feel these impacts in their daily lives?
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