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The chance of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding has risen from 1 in 83 to 1 in 43 in less than a week. Experts from NASA and the European Space Agency are closely monitoring its trajectory, but there is a problem: it could simply disappear from radar in 2028 and only reappear in 2032 – the year in which it may (or may not) hit Earth.
The idea of a giant asteroid heading towards Earth may seem like a scene from a movie, but this type of risk is real and has been studied many times. This time, 2024 YR4 has become the center of attention because, in just a few days, the probability of impact has increased significantly.
New calculations from NASA and the European Space Agency indicate that the chance of a collision is now 2,3%, which may seem low, but raises important discussions about our ability to protect us from this type of cosmic event.
Would it be an Armageddon-level disaster? Well, not quite…
Whenever news about asteroids comes up, many people immediately think of the movies Armageddon and Deep Impact. But, contrary to what Hollywood has shown, blowing up an asteroid with a nuclear bomb is not a good idea.
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This is because, depending on the size and composition of the object, the explosion could generate a shower of smaller and equally dangerous fragments. In other words, instead of solving the problem, we would simply be multiplying the number of impacts.
The truth is, if asteroid 2024 YR4 really was headed toward Earth, we would need a much smarter approach to diverting its trajectory.
Science has advanced: today we have technology to avoid impact
Contrary to what movies show, we wouldn't need a group of space miners to prevent a catastrophic impact. In 2022, NASA carried out the DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission, which proved that an asteroid can have its orbit altered by the impact of a well-positioned spacecraft.
This technology is already considered one of the best options if a truly threatening object enters a collision course with Earth.
Furthermore, the UN and the Space Missions Advisory Group will discuss this issue in the coming months, looking for ways to further enhance our planetary defenses.
What if we lose track of the asteroid?
The biggest problem with 2024 YR4 is not its current impact chance, but rather the fact that it could simply disappear from our radars starting in 2028. This is because its elliptical trajectory will take it into a region of space where it will be impossible to monitor it until 2032.
In other words, for four years, we won't be able to know exactly where he is. And when he finally reappears, it may already be too late to react.
If an impact actually occurred, calculations indicate that the possible locations affected would be between the North Pacific, South America, Central Africa and even Burma.
