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The heatwave expected for the end of April and beginning of May may lead to temperatures up to 10°C above average in several areas of Brazil in the coming days
An atypical HEATWAVE is expected to hit a large part of Brazil between the end of April and the beginning of May, with temperatures up to 10°C above historical averages and persistent atmospheric blocking.
Heat very much out of the ordinary
The forecast is from MetSul Meteorologia, which indicates heat very much out of the ordinary between the end of April and the beginning of May, particularly in the Midwest and Southeast.
According to MetSul, Mato Grosso, Goiás, Minas Gerais, and São Paulo may record highs of 5°C to 7°C above average, with even more extreme daily peaks in some cities.
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This pattern contrasts with the typical climatology of autumn, a period when temperatures tend to be milder in various areas of the country.
Atmospheric blocking prolongs the heat
MetSul reports that the HEATWAVE will be caused by a persistent atmospheric blocking, associated with an intense warm air mass.
This blocking is expected to prevent the entry of cold fronts and prolong the period of elevated temperatures, keeping the heat above normal for several days.
Areas in the interior of São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, and the Triângulo Mineiro are expected to concentrate the largest thermal deviations forecast for this episode.
In the capital of São Paulo, highs may reach 32°C or 34°C in the coming days, values considered high for the end of April.
Midwest and South will have distinct scenarios
In the Midwest, cities have already been recording temperatures above 35°C, anticipating the more intense heat scenario expected for next week.
Meanwhile, the South of the country is expected to face a different pattern. The atmospheric blocking in Central Brazil favors the formation of instabilities in the region.
As a result, the South is expected to have more rain and a risk of thunderstorms, in a situation distinct from that observed in areas under persistent warm air.
Global warming amplifies extremes
Heatwaves are not unprecedented phenomena, but there is a growing consensus that extreme events have become more frequent and intense due to global warming.
Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicate that the increase in the planet’s average temperature raises the likelihood of extreme heat episodes out of season.
Studies show that prolonged atmospheric blockings, one of the factors behind the HEATWAVE, tend to become more persistent in a warmer climate.
In Brazil, the impacts are evident. In recent years, the country has recorded temperature records, more severe droughts in the Amazon and Midwest, and extreme rainfall episodes in the South and Southeast.
Heatwave: Effects impact production, energy, and health
Out-of-season heat can have direct effects on the economy and daily life, impacting agriculture, the energy sector, and public health.
In agriculture, high temperatures during autumn affect production cycles and increase the risk of crop loss, putting pressure on production.
In the energy sector, heat increases the demand for electricity. In public health, it raises the risk of dehydration, cardiovascular problems, and worsening respiratory diseases.
These effects can weigh heavily on large urban centers, where exposure to intense heat adds to everyday conditions.
Experts point out that episodes like the one expected in the coming days tend to cease being exceptions and occur more frequently.
With the advancement of climate change, Brazil is entering a phase of greater variability and more frequent extremes, which requires adaptation of public policies and urban infrastructure.
The alert from MetSul goes beyond the forecast and reinforces a changing climate pattern, in which the out of the ordinary begins to become more common.
With information from Veja.
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