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Record surplus, dominance in clean technologies, and competition with the United States place China at the center of the new industrial economy, in an advance that changes production chains, pressures global competitors, and redefines strategies of companies, governments, and investors.
China has consolidated its transition from a low-cost manufacturing hub to a protagonist of the new industrial economy, with advances in batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels, and global clean technology chains.
This change increases pressure on competitors, reorganizes investment flows, and deepens the strategic competition with the United States, at a time of greater fragmentation of world trade.
The movement is clearly reflected in the trade balance.
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Data from the Chinese customs cited by Reuters show that the country’s trade surplus reached US$ 1.189 trillion in 2025, the largest ever recorded and above the US$ 1 trillion mark for the first time.
The value confirms China’s export strength, although it falls short of the US$ 1.5 trillion mentioned in the title.
The analysis by Ricardo Geromel, a China specialist and author of “O Poder da China,” and Jorge Hargrave, director of Maraé Investimentos, was presented on the program O Clima na Faria Lima, by InfoMoney, hosted by Marina Cançado.
For the guests, China’s rise is not limited to the volume of exports but involves long-term planning, production scale, intense internal competition, and the ability to execute projects at an unusual speed.
China advances from cheap manufacturing to competitive technology
For decades, the expression “factory of the world” defined China’s position in global chains.
The country produced on a large scale, with reduced costs, while foreign companies concentrated on design, brand, technology, and most of the profit margin in other economies.
This model changed gradually but profoundly.
The Chinese industry began to compete in more sophisticated segments and, in many cases, combines low prices with technological performance capable of challenging traditional manufacturers in Europe, the United States, Japan, and South Korea.
The shift became more visible in the energy transition.
The International Energy Agency points out that China accounts for about 85% of the global production capacity in the solar chain and approximately 80% of the capacity related to lithium-ion batteries, with an even greater share in specific stages, such as photovoltaic wafers and anode materials.
In electric vehicles, the advantage has also gained scale.
According to the IEA, China produced 12.4 million electric cars in 2024 and concentrated more than 70% of the global production that year.
In 2025, the country sold more than 13 million electric cars, maintaining its position as the largest global market for this type of vehicle.
Internal competition drives efficiency gains
Part of this progress comes from a highly competitive domestic market.
Chinese companies compete for consumers in an environment of pressured margins, short innovation cycles, and strong demand for price, scale, and rapid adaptation to changes in demand.
This dynamic forces manufacturers to reduce costs, accelerate launches, and integrate suppliers into closer production chains.
When these companies reach the external market, they carry a production structure that is difficult to replicate in economies with smaller industrial scale or more fragmented chains.
Hargrave summarized this perception by highlighting the speed of execution observed in the country.
“The main lesson was the execution capability of the Chinese people,” said the executive, commenting on the difference between projects that advance quickly in China and initiatives that, in other markets, usually take much longer.
The execution is evident in areas such as urban infrastructure, transportation electrification, renewable energy expansion, and the integration of factories, suppliers, and research centers.
The result is an industry that does not rely solely on cheap labor but on coordination, scale, and accumulated learning.
Clean energy enters the Chinese industrial strategy
The Chinese energy transition is often addressed only from the climate angle, but the motivation also involves energy security, public health, and industrial competitiveness.
The country faced severe episodes of urban pollution and, at the same time, maintained a strong dependence on imported fuels.
Data monitored by research centers and international agencies show that China continues to be a major buyer of oil.
In 2025, Chinese crude oil imports grew to about 11.6 million barrels per day, according to an analysis by the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, based on market data and estimates from Rystad Energy.
The electrification of the fleet, solar expansion, and investment in batteries reduce part of this vulnerability and, at the same time, create high strategic value export sectors.
Therefore, Chinese industrial policy combines decarbonization, energy security, and the race for technological leadership.
This framework helps explain why solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles have ceased to be just environmental products.
They have become instruments of economic influence, impacting global prices, investment decisions, and industrial strategies of other countries.
Record Surplus Increases Pressure on Trade Partners
The record trade surplus has intensified concerns outside China.
For trade partners, the combination of strong exports, moderate imports, and high productive capacity can pressure local industries, especially in sectors where Beijing already accumulates a scale advantage.
The European Union is discussing protective measures in response to the influx of Chinese products in areas such as clean technology, metals, and chemicals.
In May 2026, China criticized Brussels for selectively using trade data to justify new restrictions, while the European bloc evaluated broader trade defense instruments.
In the United States, the reaction involves tariffs, sanctions, and technological controls.
The dispute has moved beyond the trade deficit to encompass semiconductors, artificial intelligence, telecommunications, batteries, electric vehicles, and critical minerals.
Geromel classified this clash as a war already underway, albeit not a military one.
“There is a war that is already real: United States and China,” he stated, addressing the measures used by the world’s two largest economies to protect sectors considered strategic.
Climate Dispute Coexists with Dominance in Clean Solutions
China remains at the center of environmental criticism for being the largest global emitter of greenhouse gases in absolute terms.
Even so, analyses per capita and by historical responsibility make the debate more complex, especially when comparing industrialization trajectories of developed and emerging countries.
At the same time, the country has consolidated itself as the dominant supplier of technologies used in decarbonization.
This contradiction places Beijing in a unique position: large emitter, large consumer of fossil energy, and simultaneously, the main industrial scale to reduce the cost of clean solutions.
Recent reports also show that Chinese emissions went through a period of stability or decline in parts of 2024 and 2025, although experts still highlight doubts about methodological transparency and the speed required to meet long-term climate goals.
The narrative dispute, therefore, does not eliminate the central data.
China concentrates significant emissions but also leads production chains that reduce the costs of solar technologies, batteries, and electric vehicles on a global scale.
The new global economy goes through the Chinese industry
The Chinese rise has changed the way companies and governments calculate risks.
Countries that rely on imports of clean equipment seek to diversify suppliers, while Chinese companies expand investments outside the country to circumvent barriers and bring production closer to strategic consumers.
This movement tends to reshape production chains in Asia, Europe, the Americas, and emerging markets.
Instead of just exporting goods, Chinese groups are starting to export capital, technology, factories, and industrial models.
For investors and companies, following China is no longer a distant analysis of production costs.
The country influences industrial goods inflation, clean energy prices, automotive competition, energy security, international trade, and geopolitical decisions that affect entire markets.
The role of the former “factory of the world” has not disappeared, but it is no longer sufficient to describe the Chinese industrial power.
The new stage combines advanced manufacturing, mastery of strategic chains, and an open dispute with the United States for technological, commercial, and productive influence.
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