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China presents a bold plan for agribusiness, focusing on innovation and ambitious goals. Brazil can be a key player in this global game.
With the launch of a new ten-year plan for the agricultural sector, China aims to boost its domestic production and, at the same time, strengthen strategic partnerships with exporting countries such as Brazil.
The proposal aims to increase grain production by up to 50 million tons per year, with a focus on food security, technological innovation and competitiveness.
The initiative may open up new opportunities for the agribusiness Brazilian, which already accounts for around 40% of agricultural exports to the Asian country.
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China's goal is ambitious: to reach 700 million tons of grain per year, according to the plan released by the Communist Party Central Committee and the State Council of China.
To this end, the government is investing in cutting-edge technology, modernizing the production chain and encouraging innovation in the field.
Investments in technology and biotechnology should transform the sector
Among the main strategies of the plan are the valorization of precision agriculture, the use of biotechnology for genetic improvement of seeds, and the expansion of cultivable areas in currently unproductive regions, especially in cold climate zones.
The seed industry will play a central role in China's new agricultural policy. The government intends to accelerate the development of genetically modified varieties and achieve technological independence in this sector.
According to Professor Wang Gangyi of Northeast Agricultural University, seeds are the “chips” of modern agriculture, and mastering their production means controlling the basis of food security.
We also pack any the revitalization of the swine industry and the strengthening of the dairy and meat sectors are also among the goals.
The idea is to ensure not only an abundance of grains, but also a stable supply of meat, milk, eggs and agricultural by-products. This requires a profound modernization of the country's agro-industrial infrastructure.
Trade openness remains a priority
Despite the focus on internal development, China does not intend to isolate itself from the global market.
The plan maintains the need for imports and encourages international partnerships.
Thereby, Countries like Brazil continue to be key players in China's food strategy.
Experts are optimistic about the possibility of Brazil expanding its presence in this market, especially as a supplier of grains and proteins.
According to Eduardo Caldas, foreign trade consultant and specialist in Asia, there is room for Brazil to act not only as an exporter of commodities, but also as technology partner, providing sustainable and environmentally responsible solutions.
Caldas highlights the use of “protein production buildings” and vertical farming as examples of the innovations contemplated by the plan. “It seems to me that they are taking intelligent action with a productive mosaic,” he stated.
Internal challenges could keep China dependent on partners like Brazil
Despite efforts at self-sufficiency, China faces environmental and climatic constraints that make it difficult to grow a variety of foods on a large scale.
Much of the territory has poor soil or a climate that is unfavorable for agriculture. In this scenario, the country will need to continue importing strategic products — which benefits Brazil.
To Caldas, The moment demands that Brazil position itself as a strategic supplier of products with added value and recognized brands.
“It’s time to go beyond soy and corn. We need to conquer the market with processed and ready-to-eat foods,” he said.
History of changes in Chinese agricultural policy
Marcos Jank, professor of global agribusiness at Insper, contextualizes the new plan within the evolution of Chinese policies since the 1990s.
“Initially, the focus was on total self-sufficiency. But after joining the World Trade Organization (WTO), China began to prioritize strategic food security based on the global market,” he explained.
Jank highlights that, during the first trade war between the United States and China — still in the first term of former President Donald Trump —, Brazil has gained prominence as a soybean supplier, representing 60% of Chinese grain imports, while the US fell to 30%.
The professor also recalls that China has adopted important measures to reduce its dependence on imports, such as the purchase of the Swiss giant Syngenta, specialized in biotechnology, and the encouragement of the use of GMOs in the field.
Skepticism about ambitious goals
Despite his intentions, Jank is skeptical about achieving such bold goals.
“Increasing agricultural production by 50 million tons per year is extremely difficult. I don’t believe they can achieve self-sufficiency in the four main grains,” said.
The Chinese target involves grains considered essential for the country: wheat, rice, soybeans and corn.
These foods provide the basis for the diet of 1,4 billion people and are a priority in the agricultural plan presented.
Trade tensions and opportunities for Brazil
The current trade war between China and the United States continues to be a factor of instability, but also of opportunity.
Experts point out that the tension could pave the way for Brazil to expand its share of the Asian market, although they warn that the scenario could change quickly if the two giants resume dialogue.
According to Caldas, even if China reduces purchases from the US, the Asian country must compensate the supply with its traditional trading partners.
He also believes that a possible agreement between Beijing and Washington could limit Brazil's competitive advantages.
Jank reinforces this assessment: “Trade war is not something to be celebrated. If tomorrow the Chinese make a big deal with the US, Brazil could suffer a setback,” he analyzed.
For him, the best strategy is to diversify markets and products, avoiding dependence on a single business partner.
Brazil needs to act with strategy and agility
The new plan of China represents a significant shift in global trade relations and can generate lasting impacts on the global agri-food chain.
Brazil, as the main supplier of agricultural inputs and proteins, needs to prepare to take advantage of this window of opportunity.
The time is to invest in innovation, product differentiation and brand building.
More than quantity, the Chinese want quality, traceability and safety in food.
And at this point, Brazil can stand out with appropriate public policies, technological partnerships and active commercial diplomacy.
And you, do you believe that Brazil is prepared to assume an even more relevant role in global agriculture in light of the transformations in China? Leave your opinion in the comments!
