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Researchers Indicate That The Next Ice Age Should Occur In Thousands Of Years, But Human Impact On The Climate May Have Altered This Forecast
A new study suggests that Earth’s tilt relative to the Sun has been crucial for the onset and end of eight ice ages over the last 800,000 years. The research indicates that these variations in the Earth’s axis triggered changes in the ice sheets that covered large regions of the planet.
According to the researchers, if natural patterns were to follow their course, a new ice age would begin in approximately 11,000 years. However, greenhouse gas emissions from greenhouse effect may be altering this cycle, preventing a new period of intense cooling from occurring.
The Relationship Between Earth’s Tilt And Ice Ages
The study was conducted by Stephen Barker, a professor of Earth sciences at the University of Cardiff in the UK. According to him, the analyzed data show a direct link between the description of the Earth’s axis and changes in ice sheets throughout the planet’s geological history.
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Ice ages occur approximately every 100,000 years and are characterized by extremely low temperatures and the advance of massive ice sheets.
These cold periods are interspersed with warmer interglacial periods, during which the ice retreats to the poles. Currently, the Earth is in one of these interglacial periods, with the last ice age peaking around 20,000 years ago.
The idea that the position and angle of the Earth relative to the Sun influence global climate is not new. In the early 20th century, Serbian scientist Milutin Milankovitch proposed that variations in the tilt of the Earth’s axis and the shape of the planet’s orbit could trigger major glacial events.
Confirming The Milankovitch Theory
Since then, several studies have sought to confirm these hypotheses. In 1976, research found evidence that obliquity and precession — two factors related to the orientation of the Earth — played a crucial role in the formation and melting of ice sheets.
Obliquity refers to the angle of the Earth’s axis orientation, which oscillates between larger and smaller values over a cycle of approximately 41,000 years. Precession refers to the oscillation movement of the Earth’s axis, similar to the wobble of a top, and occurs over a cycle of about 21,000 years.
Barker and his team analyzed records of these cycles over the last 800,000 years, cross-referencing the data with information on the expansion and retreat of ice sheets. They used samples of ocean sediments to identify patterns and determine how these changes were linked to ice ages.
The results were surprising. The researchers found a strong link between obliquity and ice expansion, while precession appeared to be more localized in concealing these layers.
Impact On The Next Ice Age
Based on this data, scientists estimated that if the climate were responding solely to natural factors, the next ice age would begin in 10,000 to 11,000 years.
The ice would gradually expand, reaching its maximum extent over a period of between 80,000 and 90,000 years. It would then take another 10,000 years to recover again.
However, the study indicates that human activity may be interfering with this natural cycle. The rise in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the atmosphere could prevent the next ice age from occurring as predicted. “If CO2 remains high, you will not have a new glaciation, ” said Barker.
Human Influence On Global Climate
There is broad debate among scientists about when exactly the next glaciation will begin. Despite uncertainties, there is consensus that greenhouse gas emissions are altering the planet’s climate patterns.
Barker warned that although the study suggests that global warming could prevent a new ice age, this does not mean that rising temperatures are a positive thing. “What we do not want is for people who want to emit more CO2 into the atmosphere to join this, ” he emphasized.
The aim of the research is to understand how the climate would behave over the next millennia if there were no human influence. This will help estimate the long-term impacts of human activity on the planet.
The study’s results were published on February 27 in the journal Science. The researchers will continue to investigate how changes in Earth’s specifications and other natural factors interact with human influences to determine the future of the global climate.
With information from Live Science.
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