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The Shortage Of Truck Drivers Is Already Affecting The Brazilian Economy And May Turn Into A Logistical Blackout In The Coming Years, Threatening The Supply Of Food, Fuels, And Medicines, As Well As Causing Billion-Dollar Losses For The Country.
The lack of truck drivers may trigger a logistical crisis in Brazil in the coming years, with direct impacts on the economy and the supply to the population.
The warning was issued by De Leon Petta, professor and researcher, in a video published on the Global Geopolitics channel on YouTube.
According to him, the category of truck drivers is one of the first to reveal the effects of the demographic crisis that is already beginning to emerge in the country.
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Accelerated Aging Of The Category
According to Petta, the workforce in the road transport sector is aging rapidly.
The average age of Brazilian drivers is 45 years, and in 2023, 29% were over 60 years old, compared to 15% in 2013.
“About 60% of the truck drivers currently active are expected to retire by the next decade,” he highlighted.
The problem is that there are not enough young people to replace the veterans. In 2024, only 4% of drivers were under 30 years old, while 11% were already over 70.
This imbalance, according to the researcher, indicates a structural labor deficit.
High Costs Deter New Professionals
Another point raised by Petta is the difficulty of entering the market.
To obtain the necessary license (categories C, D, or E), the candidate needs to invest between R$ 2,000 and R$ 5,000, depending on the state.
The purchase of a truck can exceed R$ 900,000, making it unfeasible for most young people to enter as independent drivers.
According to him, this financial barrier creates a “vicious cycle”: few enter the profession, the fleet of drivers ages, and the shortage increases.
The lack of attractiveness in the career is also reinforced by the poor working conditions and low pay.
Exhausting Journey And Poor Infrastructure
The researcher emphasized that the profession is marked by long hours, isolation, and stress. Most Brazilian roads do not offer stopping points with adequate facilities.
“Many places don’t even have clean restrooms or safe resting options,” he stated. Moreover, insecurity weighs heavily.
Brazil records over 20,000 cargo thefts per year, mainly concentrated in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Paraná, and Minas Gerais.
These crimes expose drivers to robberies, kidnappings, and violence, leading many to discourage their own children from pursuing the career.
Decline In The Number Of Active Drivers
Between 2014 and 2024, the number of truck drivers in the country fell from 5.5 million to 4.4 million, a reduction of 20%. During the same period, the proportion of young people in the category decreased even further.
According to Petta, just in São Paulo — the economic engine of Brazil — the decline reached 37% between 2015 and 2023.
This shrinkage, combined with the advanced age of active professionals, projects an even more critical shortage by 2033.
Increasing Demand Pressures The System
As the number of drivers shrinks, the demand for road transport increases.
Today, about 60% of Brazil’s cargo moves by road, mainly grains from agribusiness, industrial products, and goods from e-commerce.
According to the researcher, this mismatch threatens the functioning of the national economy.
The shortage of truck drivers is already causing delays in deliveries, increased freight costs, and the risk of shortages of essential items such as food, fuels, and medicines.
Direct Economic Impacts
According to estimates cited by Petta, Brazil loses annually the equivalent of US$ 83 billion — about 5.6% of GDP — due to higher logistical costs.
Transport companies raise salaries and benefits to attract drivers, but the increased labor burden makes operations even more expensive.
This freight adjustment is passed on to the consumer, fueling inflation and reducing the purchasing power of the population. “It’s a cascading effect that impacts the entire economic chain,” he explained.
Shortage Of Truck Drivers Is Global
The problem, however, is not exclusive to Brazil.
Reports from the International Road Transportation Union (IRU) show that in 2024, there were 3.6 million truck driver vacancies open in 36 countries that together represent 70% of the world GDP.
The organization classifies the lack of drivers as a global structural crisis.
Petta emphasized that the average age of truck drivers worldwide is 44.5 years, but only 6.5% are under 25.
In the coming years, millions of professionals are expected to retire without adequate replacement, which could double the number of unfilled vacancies by 2026.
Attempts At Solutions In Other Countries
Countries such as United States and members of the European Union have adopted measures to reduce the shortage.
In the US, companies offer higher salaries and training programs, while the government has lowered the minimum age to drive trucks in interstate operations.
In Europe, the minimum age dropped from 21 to 18 years, accompanied by certification programs and improvements in resting areas.
Still, the lack of drivers persists. Meanwhile, investment in automation technologies and autonomous vehicles is growing as a long-term solution.
Brazil In A More Vulnerable Position
According to Petta, Brazil faces a more serious situation than developed countries.
The demographic crisis occurs alongside a lack of adequate infrastructure and high crime rates on the roads.
“We will have the aging pattern of a European society, but with the transportation structure of a developing country,” he stated.
He added that autonomous vehicles will hardly solve the problem in the country given the poor road conditions and insecurity.
A Warning For The Near Future
For the researcher, the shortage of truck drivers is already a reality and tends to intensify year after year. “This crisis is not going to start in 2040 or 2050; it is already happening,” he warned.
If no coordinated action is taken, Brazil may face a logistical blackout, with empty shelves, fuel shortages, and direct impact on agricultural exports.
In light of this scenario, the question remains: is the country prepared to face the driver crisis that threatens the foundation of its economy?
Quando os motoristas autônomos perceberem que não deveriam ser autônomos e sim uma Transportadora, fazendo que o frete venha inteiro em suas mãos e o pedágio também. Assim escapando deste monopólio das transportadoras teriam condições de possuir carretas novas, com garantia de fábrica por 3 anos e sim conseguiriam em seis meses quitar o conjunto se assim preferirem.
Mas a mídia só fala em motoristas autônomos, que sempre recebem menos de um terço do valor real do frete e fazendo assim continuarem como escravos das grandes, médias e até mesmo das pequenas transportadoras.
Cada conjunto já é por si só uma transportadora, por falta de informações os caminhoneiros autônomos continuam a transportar cargas como agregados achando que estão fazendo um bom negócio.
Um bom negócio é negociar direto com o embarcador, sem atravessador como , transportadora ou plataformas digitais que ficam com grande parte do frete que deveria ser dos autônomos.
Abrir uma transportadora facilita até na compra de caminhão novos; Paga mais impostos, seguros etc. mas o frete vem inteiro para o dono do caminhão.
Outro assunto relacionado ao frete é que, quem paga os pedágios são os embarcadores e não os autônomos.
Olá , já fui profissional da categoria mas não recomendo a ninguém pois passa muita umilhacao nas estradas e jamais vou dizer ao meu filho pra seguir essa profissão
Sempre tem essas teorias malucas a que as máquinas, vão tirar os empregos que os robôs, vão dominar os humanos que o humanos, vão da lugar os polvos que serão os próximos a dominar a terra. Ouso isso a muito tempo as tecnologias vêm em todos o setores, e também viram para o transporte!!!