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Brazil Plans to Export a New Cereal to China in 2025, Exploring a Market Valued at US$ 2 Billion and Strengthening the Agribusiness Economy
Brazil is eyeing a billion-dollar market with the expectation of starting to export a new cereal to China starting in 2025. With a potential market of US$ 2 billion, the entry of this product into the Asian giant promises to further strengthen Brazilian agribusiness, solidifying the country as one of the largest global players in the sector.
According to a report by Estadão, after years of negotiations, Brazil has finally achieved the opening of the Chinese market for sorghum, a milestone that promises to transform the landscape of national agribusiness.
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The announcement made on Wednesday, the 20th, during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Brazil, represents a strategic step in boosting Brazilian exports. Now, the country is working to meet the health and organizational requirements necessary to facilitate cereal sales to the Asian giant.
Goiás, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso, and Bahia Leaders in Sorghum Production
The first step will be the qualification of exporting companies, followed by health certification by the Ministry of Agriculture. A Chinese sanitary inspection of Brazilian crops is also planned, which should take place in April or May 2025, during the vegetative development of sorghum.
The goal is to ensure that the exported cereal is free from quarantine pests and meets the strict standards required by China.
Sorghum is a versatile grain used for both animal feed and the production of ethanol and biomass. In Brazil, it is traditionally cultivated as a rotation crop in the second harvest, especially in states such as Goiás, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso, and Bahia.
Market Potential
The opening of the Chinese market creates a promising opportunity for Brazil. The Brazilian Association of Corn and Sorghum Producers (Abramilho) projects that exports will begin in the 2025 harvest. Although starting with modest volumes, there is enormous growth potential.
China imports about 7 million tons of sorghum annually, mainly from the United States. Thus, Brazil has the chance to capture a significant share of this market.
“Brazil is the third-largest sorghum producer in the world, with about 5 million tons per harvest, and with relatively small exports. There is room for the country to become the largest sorghum exporter in the world, competing with the United States,” says Daniel Rosa, technical advisor at Abramilho, who recently participated in a trade mission to the Asian country.
Rosa also emphasizes that the diversification of suppliers by China is a strategic opportunity. Amid possible trade tensions between the United States and China, Brazilian sorghum could become a viable alternative for the Asian market.
Phytosanitary Requirements
The protocol agreed upon between Brazil and China stipulates that exported sorghum must be free of 11 specific pests, including the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) and the maize mosaic virus. While some of these pests are already controlled in the corn export protocol, there are additional challenges, such as the cleaning of Sorghum halepense seeds, a common pest in Brazilian fields.
Furthermore, the grain must be exported exclusively for processing, with stringent cleaning and storage controls. The Ministry of Agriculture will inspect each shipment before export, issuing phytosanitary certificates to ensure compliance. The companies interested will need to be qualified and registered, meeting the Chinese government’s requirements.
Impacts on Brazilian Agribusiness
The impact of this opening goes beyond the Chinese market. According to Daniel Rosa, entry into the Asian giant could boost exports to other countries in Asia, where sorghum could serve as a substitute for corn. The feasibility of these exports will depend on factors such as price and competitiveness with corn, as well as the increase in domestic consumption of ethanol produced from the cereal.
Despite the optimism, Brazil still has a modest share of the global sorghum market, with only 0.29% of the total. This year, the country registered record exports of 114,640 thousand tons, boosted by a drought in South Africa that increased demand for Brazilian sorghum. Even so, there is still much room for growth.
China: The Largest Importer in the World
China is currently the largest importer of sorghum in the world, accounting for 82.8% of global cereal trade. In 2023, the country imported US$ 1.83 billion in sorghum, half of this volume coming from the United States. China’s dependence on a few suppliers opens the door for Brazil to consolidate its presence in the Asian market.
However, the phytosanitary protocol has a validity period of five years, and the continuity of exports will depend on maintaining the required standards. Additionally, Chinese importers will need specific licenses, and the sorghum must be processed exclusively in designated factories.
Challenges for Agribusiness
Although the potential is great, the challenges are significant. One critical point is the additional risk assessment that will be conducted by Chinese authorities. This inspection will require a high level of phytosanitary control by Brazilian producers.
Another point is the qualification process for companies, which will need to be completed efficiently so Brazil can fully take advantage of the market opening.
Furthermore, strengthening logistical infrastructure will be essential to meet Chinese requirements and ensure the competitiveness of Brazilian sorghum in the international market.
The opening of the Chinese market for Brazilian sorghum marks the beginning of a new era for national agribusiness. With planning, investments, and a solid strategy, Brazil has the chance to stand out as one of the world’s leading sorghum suppliers.
However, it will be crucial for producers and authorities to work together to overcome challenges and seize the opportunities this market offers. The future of Brazilian sorghum largely depends on how the country positions itself in this new global scenario.
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