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International Energy Agency Predicts Global Copper Shortage by 2035, Threatening Energy Transition and the Production of Wind Turbines, Solar Panels, and Power Grids for Renewable Sources.
The demand for copper, an essential metal for the production of solar panels, wind turbines, and the expansion of renewable energy, is expected to exceed supply by up to 30% by 2035, according to a warning from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This scenario jeopardizes the global target for transitioning to a low-carbon economy, directly affecting the advancement of clean technologies and the stability of the global energy system.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that it is time to “sound the alarm,” drawing attention to the urgency of new public policies and international partnerships to expand the production and refining of copper, which is currently concentrated in China.
Copper Is Key in the Energy Transition
Known as the “metallic nerve” of electrification, copper is used in virtually all technologies that comprise a clean energy system: transmission cables, electric motors, turbines, solar panels, storage systems, and smart grid infrastructure.
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According to Birol, the current supply chain is insufficient to meet projected demand by 2035. The production of copper, from the discovery of new deposits to the start of mine operations, takes an average of 17 years—time that does not keep pace with the required speed of the energy transition.
The majority of unexplored reserves are still located in regions such as Latin America, Africa, and Australia, but the refining and manufacturing of components remain concentrated in a few countries, with an absolute focus on China, which processes over 70% of the critical minerals in the energy sector, according to the IEA.
Concentration of Copper Refining Raises Risks
The IEA’s warning also includes other essential minerals, such as lithium, cobalt, gallium, and manganese, which are fundamental for the production of batteries and devices used in electric vehicles, as well as solar and wind generation.
Dependence on a few suppliers for the refining stage—especially China—represents a systemic risk that can cause bottlenecks, high costs, and even destabilize entire industrial and economic chains. “If costs rise, that would be one of the biggest obstacles to the transition to a green economy,” Birol stated.
Prices and Shortages Are Already a Concern for the Industry
The high demand for copper has been putting pressure on markets since 2021, when the pandemic caused a global supply shock. Although prices have retreated over the past two years, the trend of scarcity remains.
According to the IEA, demand for lithium grew 30% in 2023, and the projection is for continuous growth as more countries invest in renewable energy and the electrification of the vehicle fleet.
A potential supply shock of metals for batteries could drive up average global battery prices by up to 50%, affecting consumers and industries, as well as jeopardizing projects in developing countries.
Urgent Solutions: Diversification and Recycling
The report proposes diversifying global supply and decentralizing copper and strategic mineral refining as a viable path to mitigate risks. Birol suggests that countries with cutting-edge technology, such as the United Kingdom, Japan, the USA, South Korea, and members of the European Union, form productive alliances with nations holding natural resources, such as Brazil, Chile, Congo, Argentina, and Australia.
Moreover, he advocates for copper recycling as a short-term solution to alleviate pressure on primary production. Another possibility mentioned is the partial substitution with alternative metals, such as aluminum, in applications that allow for this exchange without loss of efficiency.
China Leads Demand and Electrical Structure
China has been the main force behind the growth in copper demand in recent years. The country leads the expansion of electrical grids and dominates the manufacture of solar panels and wind turbines, central elements of the low-carbon economy.
This industrial prominence reinforces the IEA’s warning about the need to reduce geographic concentration and enhance the resilience of the global supply chain for critical minerals.
Government Must Assume a Strategic Role
The IEA has been emphatic in stating that market forces alone will not solve the problem. For Fatih Birol, government interventions are essential to accelerate new projects, facilitate the entry of alternative producers, and ensure energy security in a context of climate change and rapid technological growth.
“This is a very, very important issue. If nothing is done, the copper deficit will be the biggest obstacle to the global energy transition,” concluded the agency’s director.
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