Ministry Warns: U.S. 50% Tariffs Could Drain Billions and Shrink Brazil's GDP by 0.2 Points by 2026

Ministry Warns: U.S. 50% Tariffs Could Drain Billions and Shrink Brazil’s GDP by 0.2 Points by 2026

Written by Fabio Lucas Carvalho Published on 14/09/2025 at 18:00 Updated on 14/09/2025 at 18:01

Fazenda alerta que tarifaço de 50% de Trump pode cortar 0,2 ponto do PIB do Brasil até 2026, afetando exportações e investimentos.

Treasury Projections Indicate That The 50% Tariffs Imposed By Donald Trump Should Curb Exports And Reduce Brazil’s GDP Growth.

The Secretariat of Economic Policy (SPE) of the Ministry of Finance reported that the 50% tariffs imposed by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, are expected to have a negative impact of 0.2 percentage points on Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between August 2025 and December 2026.

According to the Macrofiscal Bulletin of September, the projection compares this scenario to the baseline scenario, which does not consider the tariffs.

The reduction is mainly linked to the contraction of external demand, which directly affects investments in the country.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW

Brazilian Exports Lose Momentum

The SPE highlighted that Brazil’s net exports are expected to fall by 0.1 percentage points as a proportion of GDP during the period. The decrease in sales to the United States, which is one of Brazil’s main trading partners, will not be fully offset by redirection to other markets.

This weakening in exports reflects the lagged effects of global trade, which is already facing an oversupply of goods and a slowdown in prices in the agricultural and industrial wholesale sectors.

Inflation Has Also Been Recalculated

The ministry informed that the inflation calculation now includes the expected effects of the tariffs. The estimate for the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in 2025 has been reduced from 4.9% to 4.8%, still above the target ceiling of 4.5%. For 2026, the projection is 3.6%, within the established range.

According to the SPE, the data reinforces the need to monitor the developments of the U.S. measure on the Brazilian economy and domestic prices.

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Ministry Warns: U.S. 50% Tariffs Could Drain Billions and Shrink Brazil’s GDP by 0.2 Points by 2026

Treasury Projections Indicate That The 50% Tariffs Imposed By Donald Trump Should Curb Exports And Reduce Brazil’s GDP Growth.

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Ministry Warns: U.S. 50% Tariffs Could Drain Billions and Shrink Brazil’s GDP by 0.2 Points by 2026

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