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Billion-dollar investment in BR-319 reignites the debate on infrastructure in the Amazon, while technical studies point to the risk of economic loss, significant environmental damage, and doubts about the social return of the highway connecting Amazonas and Rondônia.
Included in the federal government’s multi-year planning, the BR-319 project has an estimated cost of over R$ 2 billion and is drawing attention again for linking Manaus to the border between Amazonas and Rondônia, in a strategically and environmentally sensitive area.
At the same time, a technical study already published on the reconstruction of the highway points to the risk of billion-dollar economic and environmental losses, with a negative outcome even when only direct transportation costs and benefits are considered.
Linked to budgetary action 1248, within Program 3106, the intervention appears in the multi-year investment annexes with a total cost of R$ 2,045,094,560 for the Manaus-AM/RO border section.
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Based on the review of the Multi-Year Plan 2024-2027, the most recent forecast indicates completion by December 31, 2028 and allocates R$ 345.4 million between 2024 and 2027 for this execution phase.
BR-319 focuses billion-dollar project in the North
Treated by the government as a strategic link between Manaus and the rest of the national road network, BR-319 connects Amazonas to Rondônia and brings the Amazonian capital closer to land routes already integrated with the Midwest and Southeast.
In the current cycle’s programming, disbursements were distributed gradually, with smaller amounts at the beginning and greater concentration in the following years, indicating an attempt to accelerate execution as the project progresses.
For 2024, the announced forecast was R$ 9.7 million, while 2025 shows R$ 81.8 million and 2026 totals R$ 53.9 million within the informed schedule.
The largest projected volume is in 2027, when contributions would reach R$ 200 million, a value representing the main expansion planned in the analyzed period for this phase of the highway.
At the center of the discussions is the so-called Middle Section, a segment that for years has faced environmental, logistical, and administrative hurdles, and is also seen as crucial for reestablishing the land connection between Manaus and Porto Velho.
In addition to the reconstruction and adaptation of BR-319, Program 3106 also includes goals for maintenance, paving, and improvement of federal highways in the North, focusing on expanding the capacity of regional infrastructure.
By 2027, the mentioned programming for the PPA foresees the delivery of 298.84 kilometers of paved or adapted roads in the region, within the set of actions aimed at road transport.
Study questioned the economic return of BR-319
Despite the budgetary progress, the reconstruction of the highway continues to be accompanied by questions about its economic efficiency, especially from analyses that evaluated transportation costs, financial risks, and environmental impacts.
In May 2009, the Conservation Strategy, linked to the Conservation Strategy Fund, published the study “Economic efficiency, risks, and environmental costs of the reconstruction of highway BR-319,” focused on the intermediate section of the road.
The research examined the economic-environmental pre-feasibility of the reconstruction, taking into account benefits for users, direct costs, execution uncertainties, and possible effects of opening a permanent connection in a sensitive area of the Amazon.
Considering only the conventional scenario, with direct transportation costs and benefits, the study pointed out a loss of about R$ 316 million, in 2007 values, for the reconstruction of the highway.
In this same calculation, the benefit-cost ratio was estimated at R$ 0.33 for every R$ 1 invested, indicating a social return lower than the necessary investment, according to the parameters adopted in the report.
Through probabilistic simulations, the risk analysis reinforced the negative result and indicated that the probability of the project being economically viable was considered zero in the scenarios tested by the researchers.
Even with variations in the main uncertainties of the calculation, the report stated that the project did not achieve economic viability, a result that helps explain the ongoing controversy over the work.
Environmental impact increases estimated losses
By including environmental costs in the evaluation, the result became even more unfavorable for the reconstruction, as the study began to consider effects related to deforestation, territorial protection, and emissions associated with forest loss.
The partial economic costs of deforestation were estimated at about R$ 10.7 billion over 25 years, an amount equivalent to R$ 1.9 billion in present value.
With this integrated scenario, the total estimated loss reached approximately R$ 2.2 billion, while the benefit-cost ratio dropped to 0.065, a level much lower than observed in the conventional analysis.
In practice, the calculation indicated that each R$ 1 in costs would generate only 6.5 cents in measurable economic benefits, according to the methodology adopted by the technical study on BR-319.
Among the evaluated components, the climate impact accounted for the majority of the calculated environmental losses, with about R$ 1.4 billion attributed to the negative effect associated with global climate changes.
This value exceeds the gross estimated benefits for the highway in the study and reinforces the difference between the logic of land integration and the projected environmental costs for the region.
Another point mentioned by the report was the need for approximately R$ 469 million in additional investments to implement and protect Conservation Units capable of reducing some of the impacts associated with the road’s recovery.
History of BR-319 includes impasses and stoppages
The reconstruction of BR-319 accumulates a long-standing dispute between arguments of regional integration, reduction of logistical isolation, and concern about the advance of deforestation in still preserved forest areas.
On one side, supporters of the project cite the importance of land access between Amazonas and the rest of the country; on the other, technical studies warn of pressures on forest areas and high social costs.
In the evaluation of Strategic Conservation, the decision-making history of the highway presented significant weaknesses, including the absence of robust official economic feasibility studies when the project was included in the Growth Acceleration Program.
Also among the mentioned points is the stoppage of work fronts in 2007, after problems involving contracts and questions about the execution of works related to the recovery of the highway.
After the interruptions, part of the work was transferred to the Brazilian Army, through construction engineering structures, in an attempt to reduce delays and maintain interventions considered priorities.
Even with this operational reorganization, the discussion about BR-319 continued to be conditioned by environmental licensing, territorial inspection capacity, and pressure for infrastructure works in Amazonas.
With the resumption of billion-dollar forecasts in federal planning, the debate gained new political and budgetary weight, especially because the highway remains associated with promises of integration and warnings about environmental impacts.
By keeping the project in the PPA, the federal government signals that BR-319 remains among the priority infrastructure projects for the North, while the 2009 technical study continues to be cited for pointing out a negative economic return.
Between the bet on road integration and the risks of increasing social, environmental, and climatic losses, the central divergence remains open in a region of high sensitivity and strategic importance for the country.
So far, the available data confirm the billion-dollar global value of the action and the existence of technical studies that classify the economic feasibility of the reconstruction as null.
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