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Get Ready to Feel the Impact! Starting February 1st, Gasoline and Diesel Prices Will Soar with the Increase in ICMS. Experts Warn of the Impact on Inflation and Brazilian Finances. Discover How This Measure Affects You Directly and What to Expect in the Coming Months.
Get ready: starting this Saturday, February 1st, Brazilians will face a new blow to their wallets. Fuel prices will see a significant increase, resulting from fiscal decisions that promise to directly impact the daily lives of the population.
ICMS Increase Raises Fuel Prices
Starting February 1st, the Tax on Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) on fuels will be adjusted nationwide.
For gasoline, the ICMS will increase by R$ 0.10 per liter, rising from R$ 1.37 to R$ 1.47, representing a 7.14% increase. For diesel, the tax will go up by R$ 0.06 per liter, from R$ 1.06 to R$ 1.12.
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States’ Decision and Impact on Consumers
This change is not a determination from the federal government, but rather from state governments. The measure was established by the National Committee of Secretaries of Finance, Treasury, Revenue or Taxation of the States and the Federal District (Comsefaz) in October of last year.
According to Comsefaz, these adjustments reflect the commitment of the states to promote a balanced, stable, and transparent fiscal system that adequately responds to market price variations and promotes tax justice.
Petrobras Price Adjustments and Price Lag
Petrobras signaled to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the need to adjust diesel prices at its refineries, which have remained stable since a cut made at the end of 2023.
The state-owned company has been operating for weeks with prices significantly below international quotes. At the market opening on Wednesday (29), the diesel sold at Petrobras refineries was R$ 0.55 per liter below the import parity measured by Abicom.
Impact on Inflation and the Economy
The increase in fuel prices will have a direct impact on inflation. According to André Braz, an economist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), the ICMS increase on gasoline will have an impact of 0.08 percentage points on the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for February, making it even more difficult for the Central Bank to keep inflation within targets.
Political Repercussions and Government Popularity
The increase in fuel prices comes at a delicate time for the government, already pressured by rising food prices.
According to the Folha de S.Paulo portal, Gilberto Braga, an economics professor at Ibmec-RJ, emphasizes that the gasoline price increase is primarily felt by the middle class that regularly uses and fuels their vehicles with the fuel.
“There is a secondary effect, which is contributing to worsen the government’s evaluation in the social segment where it has the highest disapproval,” he states.
Future Perspectives and Challenges
Petrobras’ new pricing policy does not exclusively follow international quotes, but the market anticipates an increase in diesel imports by the company, which could justify adjustments to avoid losses from selling the imported product.
Amance Boutin, an analyst at Argus, says that the state-owned company may be compensating for maintenance shutdowns at the Abreu e Lima Refinery in Pernambuco, which is a major diesel producer. “It does not have access to Russian diesel, so it is purchasing more expensive products,” he says.
In this context, Brazilian consumers should prepare for an increase in fuel prices starting February 1st.
The fiscal decisions of the states, combined with Petrobras’ pricing policies, indicate that the impact will be felt not only when refueling but also in the prices of various products and services that depend on road transportation.
The population, already pressured by rising food prices, now faces this additional challenge in their budgets.
And you, how do you plan to deal with this increase in the cost of living? Share your opinion in the comments!
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