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Domestic Market Operates Cautiously After Historical Highs, While Dollar Rises and Investors Monitor Earnings and the Selic Rate Decision This Week
The Ibovespa opened Tuesday, November 4, 2025, with slight fluctuations after closing the previous trading session above 150,000 points, an unprecedented mark in the country.
At 12:45 PM, the index of B3 increased 0.1%, close to 150,599 points, after nine consecutive sessions of gains, which generated caution among investors.
Abroad, instability in international markets limited the advance. Investors reduced positions amid concerns about the technology sector and declines in Europe.
According to a report from Ágora Investimentos, the global scenery tends to encourage profit-taking, interrupting the recent gains of the market.
Meanwhile, the dollar rose 0.45%, quoted at R$ 5.38, following the global rise of the American currency against other currencies.
The DXY Index gained 0.25%, reflecting the greater appetite for safety abroad.
According to data from Investing.com, the dollar fell slightly but rose again at the end of the morning.
The exchange rate variation reinforces the direct impact of the international scenario on the real, which loses strength whenever the dollar strengthens globally.
Focus on Corporate Earnings
In the domestic scenario, attention turns to the third quarter earnings season. After the close of this Tuesday (5), the results of Itaú Unibanco, CSN, and CSN Mining will be disclosed.
Embraer reported an adjusted net profit of R$ 289 million, a 76.4% decline compared to the same period in 2024.
Klabin reported a net profit of R$ 478 million, a 34% decrease versus the third quarter of 2024. The result was in line with market projections.
For analyst Alison Correia, co-founder of Dom Investimentos, the phase of profit-taking is natural after a series of records. He emphasized that this movement can be healthy for market equilibrium.
Expectation for the Copom Decision
Investors are awaiting the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), scheduled for Wednesday, November 5, after 6:30 PM.
The market consensus points to a maintenance of the Selic rate at 15% per year, according to a survey by Agência O Tempo.
The expectation focuses on the Central Bank’s statement, which may indicate the beginning of a cycle of future cuts.
“The expectation is that the Selic will remain at 15%, but the statement should show if there is room for faster cuts,” stated Correia.
The decision will be crucial to define the market projections on inflation and economic growth in the coming months.
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For the economist José Kobori, the USA gained a trump card to “blackmail” Brazil and undermine China’s influence by classifying the PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorists, increasing the power to pressure companies, banks, and even Pix.
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The labor shortage has changed its face in Brazil: companies hire 80% more, but workers stay only 6.8 months in the job, the service market becomes a “revolving door,” and businesses spend increasingly more to train teams that soon leave.
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Chinese giant chooses SC to set up its first factory in Brazil, investing R$ 250 million and producing MRI machines costing R$ 10 million each, with 100 direct jobs and 5% of revenue allocated to research.
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After selling a unit for R$ 115 million to pay off debts, a traditional factory in SC founded in 1932 has a new R$ 64.8 million plan denied by the court and retains about 690 workers in Joinville.
External Scenario and Impact on Commodities
Abroad, western stock markets were operating lower, as investors reassessed the prospects for global growth and the latest corporate results.
In the United States, the market reacted to the possibility of new interest rate cuts and the prolonged government shutdown under Trump, which is already 35 days long, matching the historical record of 2018–2019.
Furthermore, oil fell about 1%, and iron ore dropped 1.71% on the Dalian exchange in China, according to data from Bloomberg.
According to economist Silvio Campos Neto from Tendências Consultoria, “the external correction and the devaluation of commodities favor adjustments in the local market, after a period of strong optimism.”
A Moment of Transition?
With the Ibovespa at a record level, the dollar rising, and investors focused on the Copom, the Brazilian market is experiencing a moment of transition between confidence and prudence.
Therefore, in light of this scenario, an inevitable question arises: has the cycle of euphoria come to an end or is it merely giving way to a strategic pause?
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