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In March, The ICEI Index Falls Again; Entrepreneurs from the South and Northeast Lose Optimism, While Only Three Sectors Cross The Confidence Line
The month of March brought new signs of concern for the national industry. According to a survey released on Monday (31) by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), the Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) Sectoral fell in 19 sectors compared to February. This data reinforces a scenario of uncertainty that is starting to affect even the most resilient segments of the sector.
As a consequence, five important sectors have left the confidence field and started to show pessimism. They are:
- Motor Vehicles
- Printing and Reproduction
- Footwear and Its Parts
- Leathers and Leather Goods
- Biomass Fuels
With this, the total number of confident sectors fell from 10 to 8, while the number of segments with a lack of confidence increased from 18 to 21. Therefore, the industrial business environment is moving towards a more cautious climate, directly impacting investment decisions.
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Nevertheless, Ten Sectors Recorded Improvement in The ICEI
Despite most showing a decline, ten sectors managed to advance in the ICEI. Among them, three surpassed the dividing line of 50 points, indicating a return to optimism:
- Information Technology, Electronics and Optics Equipment
- Electrical Machinery and Equipment
- Infrastructure Works
This data shows that, although the overall scenario is challenging, there are sectors with growth potential, especially those linked to technology and infrastructure, which tend to attract investments even in times of instability.
Small Industries Lead The Decline in Confidence
In terms of business size, small industries led the index’s downturn, with a drop of 1 point, falling from 47.5 to 46.5 points. This means that pessimism has increased among small entrepreneurs, especially due to difficulties in accessing credit, high tax burden, and retracted demand.
Furthermore, medium-sized companies remained distrustful, as the ICEI remained at 48.7 points, below the optimism line. On the other hand, large companies managed to maintain optimism, with the index at 50.3 points, despite a slight decline of 0.2 points. This balance reflects the ability of large corporations to better withstand economic shocks.
South and Northeast Suffer The Greatest Regional Decline in Industrial Confidence
From a regional perspective, the ICEI revealed that:
- South: decline of 1.3 points
- Northeast: decline of 1.2 points
- Southeast: stability
- North: increase of 2.3 points
- Central-West: increase of 0.9 points
That is, while the South and Northeast face a decline in confidence, entrepreneurs from the North and Central-West show more optimism. The Southeast, in turn, maintained the same levels as the previous month. This variation highlights an economy with multiple speeds, where regional behavior becomes decisive for guiding public policies.
Outlook Remains Unstable, Even With Isolated Advances
Even with improvement in specific sectors and progress in two regions, the overall industrial confidence picture remains unchanged from February. Entrepreneurs in the South and Southeast remain pessimistic, while those in the Central-West, North, and Northeast maintain some hope for recovery.
The CNI surveyed 1,764 companies between March 6 and 17, 2025, including:
- 699 small companies
- 654 medium companies
- 411 large companies
Thus, with confidence generally declining, especially among small entrepreneurs and in more industrialized regions, the question remains: what is needed to restore the confidence of the Brazilian industry and boost a new cycle of growth?
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