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Business Leaders in the Industrial Sector Reveal Renewed Confidence for the Next Six Months, According to the Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index
The winds seem to be changing on the Brazilian industrial horizon. After a quarter of uncertainties and declining confidence, June brings a breath of hope. According to the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), the Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) demonstrated an advance of 1.2 points, reaching the mark of 50.4 points. This index acts as a dividing line, distinguishing lack of confidence from optimism in the industrial sector. The analysis was based on interviews with 1,382 companies during the first week of June.
Confidence Decline Interrupted
Since the beginning of 2023, the ICEI had been dangerously floating close to the threshold of 50 points, alternating between periods of optimism and distrust. The wave of pessimism that settled between March and May now seems to give way to a more positive scenario.
Marcelo Azevedo, Manager of Economic Analysis, emphasizes that although the overall picture of the Brazilian economy is still perceived negatively by business leaders, expectations have improved throughout the year. “Even without explicitly questioning the reasons for such an assessment and the positive expectations in this study, it is known that the industrial sector has been suffering from high interest rates. Additionally, there is also the challenge of high delinquency and the heavy indebtedness of families,” explains Azevedo.
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Restricted Optimism and Rising Expectations
The CNI survey reveals an advance in all components of the ICEI from May to June 2023. The Current Conditions Index rose 1.1 points, reaching 44.2 points. Although it is below the dividing line of 50 points, this increase signals that the pessimism of business leaders regarding current business conditions has been easing compared to the last six months.
Meanwhile, the Expectations Index jumped 1.3 points, reaching 53.5 points. This number, being above the 50-point threshold, demonstrates that the industrial sector has more hope for the second half of the year. It is worth noting, however, that this optimism is still more pronounced within companies. While the company’s expectations index rose 1.1 points to 56.8 points, the expectation regarding the Brazilian economy also increased (1.9 points), but remains below the dividing line, at 47 points.
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