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The coffee market regained strength in Brazil in 2026 after the combination of a larger harvest and a drop in supermarket prices. According to data released by the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic), beverage consumption grew 2.44% in the first four months of the year, reaching about 4.9 million 60-kilogram bags consumed in the period.
In addition, the sector projects a record harvest for this year, mainly driven by strong production in Minas Gerais and the advancement of national productivity. Experts state that the increase in supply helped reduce consumer prices, once again stimulating consumption among Brazilians.
Price drop helped boost consumption
After a period of strong price increases between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, the market began to show a slowdown in prices charged in supermarkets.
Furthermore, traditional coffee recorded a drop of over 15% in April compared to the same period the previous year.
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Experts claim that the price reduction returned some purchasing power to Brazilian consumers.
In this context, consumption began to grow more consistently again.
Record harvest excites coffee sector
The National Supply Company (Conab) estimates production of approximately 66.7 million bags in 2026.
Moreover, the volume represents a growth of about 18% compared to the previous season and could become the largest harvest in Brazil’s history.
Experts state that the combination of a larger productive area and high productivity favored the positive scenario.
Therefore, the market began to work with the expectation of greater price stability.
Minas Gerais leads national production
Minas Gerais continues to be the main coffee-producing state in the country.
In addition, the projection indicates production exceeding 33 million bags just in the state of Minas Gerais.
Experts state that the performance in Minas Gerais has a huge influence on the Brazilian coffee market.
In this scenario, the good harvest in the region directly helped to increase the national supply.
March marked a stronger recovery in consumption
According to Abic, the recovery became more evident from March.
Moreover, in that month, consumption growth exceeded 10% compared to March 2025.
Experts state that Brazilian consumers remain highly sensitive to coffee price fluctuations.
Therefore, the reduction in prices had an immediate impact on sales.
Brazil remains a global coffee powerhouse
Brazil remains the largest producer and exporter of coffee in the world.
Additionally, the country holds a strategic position in the international beverage market.
Experts state that Brazilian coffee cultivation has enormous economic and historical importance.
In this context, any change in national production directly influences the global market.
Greater supply helped reduce retail pressure
The increase in production raised the availability of raw material in the domestic market.
Moreover, this reduced part of the inflationary pressure observed in recent years.
Experts state that agricultural markets tend to respond quickly to the balance between supply and demand.
Therefore, the expectation of a strong harvest helped to lower prices.
Specialty coffee remains more expensive
Despite the drop in traditional coffee, some categories still recorded increases.
Furthermore, specialty coffees, decaffeinated, and instant coffee continued to rise in certain regions.
Experts state that premium products remain supported by specific consumption niches.
In this scenario, the specialty coffee market remains heated.
Sector expects recovery to continue
The industry’s expectation is that consumption will continue to grow throughout 2026.
Moreover, producers believe that greater price stability should stimulate new retail purchases.
Experts state that price predictability helps strengthen the consumer market.
Therefore, the sector shows optimism for the coming months.
Exports still face challenges
Despite the positive internal scenario, exports declined at the beginning of the year.
Furthermore, Brazil shipped about 11.5 million bags between January and April, a smaller volume compared to 2025.
Experts state that reduced stocks and international fluctuations still impact foreign trade.
In this context, the international market remains attentive to the new Brazilian harvest.
Internal consumption regains strength
Coffee continues to be one of the most consumed beverages by Brazilians.
Additionally, the resumption of consumption reinforces the cultural and economic importance of the product in the country.
Experts state that coffee has historically strong demand even during periods of economic volatility.
Therefore, small price drops usually generate a quick consumer response.
Market monitors harvest behavior
Producers and investors continue to monitor the evolution of the 2026 harvest.
Moreover, factors such as climate, productivity, and exports continue to influence prices.
Experts state that maintaining the record harvest could lead to further reductions in retail.
In this scenario, consumers may continue to find more affordable prices.
What experts expect for the coming months
Analysts believe that the coffee market should remain heated throughout the year.
In addition, the combination of high production and more balanced prices may strengthen domestic consumption.
Among the main factors being monitored are:
- Record coffee harvest
- Price drop
- Production in Minas Gerais
- Brazilian exports
- Consumption recovery
All these elements should continue to influence the coffee sector in 2026.
More Accessible Coffee Changes the Brazilian Market Scenario
The growth in sales shows how the combination of a larger harvest and falling prices is already beginning to transform the coffee market in Brazil.
Furthermore, the sector bets that the record production could bring more stability to consumers and producers throughout the year.
As the harvest progresses in various regions of the country, coffee is regaining strength in Brazilians’ shopping carts and reinforces its role as one of the most important products in the national economy.
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