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Despite Brent and WTI having retreated in Thursday’s session, analysts keep the market on alert with the escalation of attacks between Washington and Tehran and the risk to traffic through the Persian Gulf
The war between the United States and Iran intensified again this Thursday (9), precisely on the day Tehran buried its assassinated supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Despite the escalation, however, the international oil market reacted in the opposite direction to what was expected. According to G1, barrel prices closed the session down, even with the conflict on investors’ radar.
How the oil market reacted to the new escalation
After opening the day higher, Brent crude ended the session with a 2.2% drop, priced at US$ 76.30. Similarly, WTI fell 2%, to US$ 72.08. In practice, the result shows that despite the growing military tension, the market still considers other factors — such as global supply and demand expectations — when pricing oil.
New attacks, Khamenei’s burial, and the international reaction
Tensions between the United States and Iran increased again this Thursday, after Iranian armed forces launched attacks against American military infrastructures in Gulf countries. The offensive was a response to bombings carried out by the United States against provinces on Iran’s southern coast and east, which increased pressure on the ceasefire agreement that had been in place for three weeks.
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On the same day, Iran held the burial of its supreme leader assassinated at the beginning of the conflict. Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the war, on February 28, and the ceremony, at the Mashhad shrine, concluded a week of funeral processions and demonstrations in the country. Meanwhile, explosions were reported in different Iranian regions, including Bushehr, where one of Iran’s nuclear plants is located.
The escalation also provoked international reactions. Qatar, which often acts as a mediator between Washington and Tehran, condemned the attacks on commercial navigation and advocated for the resumption of diplomatic negotiations. Similarly, the Foreign Ministers of Turkey and Oman emphasized, in conversations with Iranian Chancellor Abbas Araqchi, the need to avoid a new military escalation.
Why the Strait of Hormuz is the key to the crisis
Amid the worsening conflict, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy stated that the United States’ attacks and interventions in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have hindered the gradual resumption of navigation in the region.
The Strait of Hormuz is a maritime corridor about 50 kilometers wide that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. Before the war, about 20% of all oil and gas traded in the world passed through the area — which explains why any instability in the region has the potential to directly affect global energy prices.
Although Iran does not own the maritime route, the country controls the northern coast of the strait, as well as several islands and military positions — which allows it to monitor practically all vessel traffic in the region. In recent years, Iran has turned this geographical position into an instrument of political and military pressure: at the beginning of the war, it even closed the strait to gain an advantage at the negotiating table.
Currently, the Iranian government argues that the world should recognize the country’s sovereignty over the maritime route — a claim that remains without international acceptance and, combined with the new attacks, keeps the oil market and regional diplomacy on constant alert.
