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Brent Oil Trades Below $60 After Advances in Ukraine Negotiations Elevate Expectations of Greater Supply and Possible Sanction Relief.
The international oil market started the week under strong influence from the geopolitical scenario. On Tuesday (16), the Brent crude, the European benchmark, began trading below $60, a movement not seen since May.
The price decline occurs amid diplomatic advances related to the war in Ukraine and expectations of increased global supply of the commodity.
This new environment has brought a greater appetite for risk among investors. As a consequence, futures contracts began reflecting a more optimistic reading on the balance between supply and demand.
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Political Statements Drive Market Movement
One of the main catalysts for the drop in oil was the statement from the President of the United States. On Monday, Donald Trump stated that “now we are closer than ever” to a deal capable of ending the conflict in Ukraine. The declaration quickly resonated among operators and analysts in the energy sector.
Additionally, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also spoke on the same day. He celebrated the “advances” in negotiations with the United States to end the war. These signals reinforced the perception that a diplomatic resolution may be closer.
If negotiations advance concretely, the end of the conflict, which began in February 2022, could result in the relief of sanctions imposed on Russian oil. This factor is closely monitored by the market, as Russia is one of the largest global producers.
With fewer restrictions, international supply is likely to increase. Thus, the market balance may be altered, further pressuring prices in the short and medium term.
Futures Contracts Reflect Expectation of Greater Supply
In Tuesday’s trading session, the Brent contract for February was trading down over 1%, being negotiated below the symbolic mark of $60. This movement reinforces the devaluation trend observed in recent days.
Meanwhile, in the United States, the scenario also reflects weakening prices. On Monday, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil barrel, with delivery scheduled for January, closed the day at $56.82. This was the lowest level recorded in nearly five years.
Given this context, market agents are adjusting their positions based on short-term expectations.
The combination of diplomatic advances, possible return of Russian volumes to the market, and expectations of greater supply remains the main driving force pressuring oil, keeping prices on a downward trajectory in international markets.
