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Global Economy In Decline, Brazil Continues With Modest Growth. The IMF Reveals New Economic Projections, But The Impacts Of Trade Tensions May Still Be Greater.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its projections for the economic growth of Brazil and the world in its most recent report, released in April 2025.
According to the new edition of the World Economic Outlook (WEO), global economic performance has faced a series of structural and cyclical challenges, which have been slowing the recovery that began after the more acute effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The forecast for global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2025 has been revised to 2.8%, down from the previously projected 3.3% and 0.5 percentage points lower than the estimate released in January.
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This adjustment reflects the intensification of trade tensions between major economies, prolonged political uncertainties, and a cooling of consumer and investor confidence worldwide.
Brazil Continues At A Pace Below Global Average
In the case of Brazil, the IMF’s projection for 2025 is a growth of 2%, down from the 3.4% recorded in 2024.
The estimate for 2026 remains at 2%, indicating a stability that, while positive, places the country below the global average.
In January, the expectation was for a growth of 2.2% for both 2025 and 2026.
According to the IMF, Brazil’s performance, despite the slowdown, remains more solid compared to other countries in Latin America.
The report points out that the country has managed to maintain a certain degree of resilience in the face of external turbulence, but still faces considerable risks.
The main explanation for the retreat in Brazil’s growth rate is the slowdown in private consumption, directly affected by the decrease in confidence among families and businesses.
The IMF emphasizes that this confidence has been shaken by the constant changes in the global trade landscape, especially with the new tariffs imposed by the United States on various trade partners.
International Trade Under Scrutiny
The tightening of U.S. trade policies has generated significant collateral effects in countries such as China, Canada, Mexico, and European Union members, as well as negatively impacting production and supply chains at a global level.
The trade war, which intensified from the second half of 2024, continues to be one of the main threats to economic recovery.
The IMF warns that such protectionist barriers may lead not only to a global slowdown but also to market distortions with lasting effects.
The increase in tariffs, coupled with the weakening of external demand, affects exports, investments, and the pace of innovation across various sectors.
In a broader analysis, the organization’s report emphasizes that the world economy “is at a critical moment,” requiring caution and coordinated strategies to avoid a new global recession.
Despite some signs of stabilization in 2024, such as gradual reductions in inflation in some regions, challenges persist — especially stagnation in the disinflation processes in developed countries.
Eurozone Also Raises Concerns
Europe, especially the countries of the Eurozone, continues to show uneven performance.
In 2024, the average growth of the bloc was 0.9%, with projections of 0.8% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026 — numbers below expectations and lower than previously projected.
The recovery of the region is hindered by a weakened industry, high levels of political uncertainty, and difficulties in implementing coordinated fiscal policies among member countries.
Despite this, some countries like Spain show more promising results, with a projected growth of 2.5% for this year.
Outlook and Recommendations
The IMF highlights that effective economic policies, focused on fiscal responsibility, stimulating productive investment, and strengthening trade ties, are crucial to reversing the trend of slowdown.
In the case of Brazil, strengthening the national industry, tax simplification, and increasing competitiveness are seen as pathways to ensure greater sustainable growth.
Furthermore, the report draws attention to the need for global action in the face of climate risks, as extreme events, such as prolonged droughts and floods, have been directly impacting agricultural production and market stability.
Finally, the IMF emphasizes that reducing social inequality and expanding access to credit are key components to stimulate the domestic economy of emerging countries. Measures that ensure macroeconomic stability and confidence in domestic markets should be priorities for governments and financial institutions.
And The Future?
With so many challenges on the horizon, the global economic scenario requires constant monitoring and the ability to adapt quickly.
Even though Brazil maintains a reasonable performance, exposure to external risks remains high, requiring heightened attention from economic authorities.
The global slowdown, combined with geopolitical tensions and transformations in international trade, makes forecasts volatile — and any abrupt change can directly affect the country’s growth trajectory.
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