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Fall of Basic Basket in BH Reduces Impact on Minimum Wage and Follows Deceleration of Food Inflation.
The price of the basic basket in Belo Horizonte fell by 1.21% between December 2025 and January 2026, according to a survey by the Foundation Institute of Economic, Administrative and Accounting Research of Minas Gerais (Ipead).
The average cost has reached R$ 733.77, directly reflecting the behavior of food inflation in the capital of Minas Gerais.
The movement was mainly influenced by the reduction in the price of essential foods and occurred at the beginning of 2026 in the Metropolitan Region of the capital.
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As a result, the burden on the minimum wage reached the lowest level in the last five years.
Therefore, in proportional terms, the current value accounts for 45.27% of the national minimum wage, which is currently set at R$ 1,621.
Thus, despite still being high, the indicator shows relief in the family budget, especially for lower-income groups.
Basic Basket Has Less Impact on Minimum Wage
Thus, the relationship between basic basket and minimum wage is one of the main barometers of purchasing power.
With the adjustment of the national minimum wage defined by the Ministry of Planning and Budget at the end of 2025, there was an immediate improvement in this indicator.
Today, the R$ 733.77 needed to purchase basic foods represents 45.27% of the minimum wage.
In January 2025, for example, the percentage was nearly four points higher, highlighting a relative gain in food income.
The last time the index was at a similar level was in August 2020, when the basket corresponded to 45.82% of the prevailing minimum wage.
Which Foods Pulled Down the Price of Food
Among the items that contributed the most to the reduction of the total cost, beef protein played a central role.
The chã-de-dentro recorded a decline of 4.09% during the period and was the main driver of the fall, even without leading the percentage variation.
Other important products also helped to contain the value of the basic basket:
Banana caturra: -15.28%;
Rice: -5.35%;
Granulated sugar: -4.26%.
As these items have significant weight in domestic consumption, any fluctuation directly impacts the final calculation.
Pointed Increases Pressure Food Inflation
On the other hand, not all products followed the downward trend.
Some items registered significant increases in food prices, partially pressuring the index.
The main increases were:
Tomato: +15%;
English potato: +9%;
Carioquinha beans: +3.40%.
In the case of tomatoes, climatic factors had a direct influence.
Heavy rains in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte affected production and logistics, increasing costs.
Weather Explains Surge in Horticultural Products
Horticultural products are highly sensitive to climatic conditions.
Excess rainfall compromises harvesting, transportation, and preservation, reducing supply and pressuring prices.
This effect was mainly felt in tomatoes, a staple food in the Brazilian diet.
Thus, even with the overall decrease in the basic basket, point fluctuations still reflect vulnerabilities in the agricultural chain.
Food Inflation Slows Down in the Capital of Minas Gerais
The behavior of food inflation reinforces the scenario of relief.
The indicator recorded a decrease of 0.67% in January in the general index of the capital.
According to the person responsible for the research:
“The drop (in the price of the basic basket) occurred in the same rhythm as inflation, which rose less in BH this month, following the behavior of food,” says the Ipead research head, Eduardo Antunes.
Despite this, other urban costs prevented a greater deceleration of overall inflation.
Services and Tariffs Maintain Positive Inflation
Even with cheaper food, the overall index closed up 1.13%. Among the factors that pressured the cost of living are:
Urban bus fare adjustment;
Increase in property tax (IPTU);
Rise in domestic employment costs.
In other words, the relief in the supermarket was partially offset by service expenses.
Historical Comparison of Food Prices
The annual analysis shows that the current cost is far from recent peaks.
In March 2025, for example, the basic basket reached R$ 780.66 — almost R$ 50 above the current value.
Other milestones:
November 2025: R$ 730.55;
January 2025: R$ 754.34.
This indicates a trend of accommodation over the past year.
Prospects for the Coming Months
The future scenario is still uncertain. Factors such as climate, harvest, exchange rate, and logistical costs can quickly alter the price of food.
According to Antunes:
“Since it started being monitored by the Foundation (Ipead) in the 1990s, when the Real Plan was launched, it has reached almost 80% of the minimum wage at that time.
(The current relationship) is a very high value when we look at a worker’s salary in relation to the cost of a supposed basic basket.”
Therefore, although the moment is of relative relief, the burden of food still remains high in the popular budget.
See more at: Price of Basic Basket in BH Falls by 1.21% in January
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